Greenburgh COVID19: we're getting a better sense now

In today's Westchester County geographical, we're starting to get a better sense of positive case distribution as the geographical identification of cases starts to catch up to the total number of positives reported.

As of today (4/7):

Unincorporated Greenburgh:   337
Greenburgh Villages:               299

Villages Breakdown:
Elmsford:      36
Ardsley:        35
Tarrytown:    77
Irvington:      30
Dobbs Ferry: 79
Hastings:       42

SOURCE: Westchester County COVID-19 Confirmed Cases as of 04/07/2020

The projections, however, can now be slightly more accurately estimated. This geographical distribution comes from 7,211 cases geographically confirmed county-wide out of 14,941 county cases total, or 48%.  Actually, the totalnumber reported here by Westchester County is slightly higher than the 14,804 cases for Westchester reported by the state. This 48% geographical identification rate is a big improvement on the 42% we had just two ago.  

Using this 48% identification number, we can now project the actual number of cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  702 (projected - an incense of 50 since 4/5)

Greenburgh Villages:              623  (projected - a decrease(1) of 3 since 4/5)

Town total                            1,325  (projected - an increase of 47 since 4/5) 

These new numbers and corresponding projections confirm what we suspected two days ago:  we really don't have a firm grasp on the number of cases among Greenburgh's 90,000 residents.   While the. changes in geographically identified cases do show an overall increase (as opposed to the projections), these fluctuations may result from the county's further geographical identification of existing cases in addition to new cases.  We can reasonably assume, however, that the actual number of cases in Greenburgh is much higher than those geographically identified by the county.