Greenburgh COVID19 update; 4/27

We last did on of these reviews four days ago:   

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    815

Greenburgh Villages:                742

Town of Greenburgh               1557 

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         145

Ardsley:             65

Tarrytown:       206

Irvington:          61

Dobbs Ferry:   183

Hastings:           82

The County's total of 28,295 is slightly ahead of the State's reported 28,007 positive cases for Westchester. The rate of geographically identified cases continues to increase, now up to 67%. Applying this 67% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh: 1,216 

Greenburgh Villages:             1,107   

Town total                              2,323

While the TOV increase rates remains low, we're seeing the villages rates catch up.  We're also seeing the overall rate of positive cases in Elmsford approach 5%.  Of course, by now, these cases aren't all active.  

Greenburgh COVID19: stabilizing but still increasing

The new Greenburgh numbers released by the County today:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    748

Greenburgh Villages:                673

Town of Greenburgh               1421 

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         135

Ardsley:             61

Tarrytown:       184

Irvington:          53

Dobbs Ferry:   163

Hastings:           77

The County's total of 26,303 continues to pull ahead of the State's reported 25,959 positive cases for Westchester. The rate of geographically identified cases continues to increase, now up to 66%. Applying this 66% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh: 1,133 

Greenburgh Villages:             1,020   

Town total                              2,153

Greenburgh COVID19:

The new Greenburgh numbers released by the County today:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    728

Greenburgh Villages:                651

Town of Greenburgh               1379 

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         128

Ardsley:             60

Tarrytown:       179

Irvington:          52

Dobbs Ferry:   156

Hastings:           76

The County's total of 25,588 is pulling ahead of the State's reported 25,276 positive cases for Westchester. The rate of geographically identified cases continues to increase, now up to 65%. Applying this 65% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh: 1,120 (up 16% in one week)

Greenburgh Villages:             1,002  (up 22% in one week)  

Town total                              2,122

Elmsford remains the most troubling area where, applying projected number, the positive case rate is approaching 4%
. 

Greenburgh COVID19: TOV curves flattens while villages catch up

The new Greenburgh numbers released by the County today:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    675

Greenburgh Villages:                606

Town of Greenburgh               1281 

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         106

Ardsley:             60

Tarrytown:       168

Irvington:          52

Dobbs Ferry:   147

Hastings:           73

For now, the County's total of 24,317 and the State's report of 24,306 positive cases for Westchester are nearly the same. The rate of geographically identified cases has risen to 63%. Applying this 63% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh: 1,071 

Greenburgh Villages:                962   

Town total                              2,033

Elmsford remains the most troubling area as probably 3% of that village's population is positive.  

The new Greenburgh numbers released by the County today show a surprising 6% jump from the previous day:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    593

Greenburgh Villages:                504 

Town of Greenburgh                1037 (one day increase of 60)

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:          82

Ardsley:            53

Tarrytown:      141

Irvington:         42

Dobbs Ferry:  119

Hastings:          67

In contrary to yesterday's optimism, these numbers show a sizable increase that, admittedly, may simply arise from the vagaries of test reports coming in and the county's lag in identifying residences.  

A small gap is emerging again between the County's total of 21,730 and the State's report of 21,828 from the State for Westchester. The rate of geographically identified cases rose a bit to 59%. Applying this 59% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh: 1,005 

Greenburgh Villages:                869   

Town total                              1,874  

NOTE: Look at the big jump in White Plains cases from 796 to 914  (14%!).
Elmsford also had a big increase from 75 to 82.  In light of the leaps in Elmsford and White plains, some more general identification of the Greenburgh locations would be informative.
No increase in Irvington - what's going on there?   

Greenburgh COVID19: Curve Bending but Wide Variations within Greenburgh and Lax Reporting by Town and County

As Greenburgh's total confirmed cases has crossed 2% of the population (projected for Unincorporated), I'm feeling more comfortable using the confirmed case numbers for some comparison purposes.  Using the COVID19 case map released today by the County, we see that the Town of Greenburgh has a positive case rate of 1132 per 100,000.   This is slightly lower than total County rate of 1260/100K.

Unincorporated rate is 1252/100K

Villages total rate:        1023/100K

However, we see great variations within Greenburgh's villages.   

Greenburgh's incorporated villages COVID19 positive case rates:

Elmsford:  1502/100K

Ardsley:    1147  "

Tarrytown 1134  "

Dobbs Fer:1025  "

Hastings:     804  "

Irvington:    642  "

Elmsford's case rate is high, as the only political division within the town that we know exceeds the County rate.   Elmsford village (only 5000 residents) is surrounded by Unincorporated which suggests that there may be variation in the rates within Unincorporated's much larger population and more geographically spread out population.  

The real surprise here is Irvington's consistently low rate particularly as that village is sandwiched between Tarrytown and Dobbs Ferry which much higher rates.  Irvington's rate is just over half of the TOV rate and 42% of the Elmsford rate.  

Let's look at a few neighbors for some context:

Ossining Village:  2030/100K

Sleepy Hollow:     1785

New Rochelle:      1672

(All well higher than anything we find in Greenburgh)

White Plains.         1371

Scarsdale                 904

NOTE:  all population numbers are 2018 census projections appearing at censusreporter.org.  Rates are based on the County's geographically reported number of 12,197 total which is 58% of the County's total of 20,893 and the state's total of 20,947 for Westchester County.  All of the above rates are likely 40% higher than listed above.  

At this point, a good six weeks or so into this crisis its fair to ask some pointed question about County/Town reporting:

1.  Why don't we have a geographical breakdown for deaths?

2.  Also for nursing homes/senior facilities:  the County Executive informs us that a large % of the COVID19 deaths come from these facilities:  we don't need that names of the facilities, but why not a geographical breakdown?

3.  Why do the geographical numbers still lag at 58% of the County's 20K cases?  Why can't this reporting gap be closed already?  Massachusetts by comparison geographically identifies for the public more than 98%(!) of its  nearly 30K cases.  

Westchester County and the Town of Greenburgh really need to step up in their reporting information.  Lack of information always breed mistrust in leadership. 

Now let's return to the regular report and projections

The new Greenburgh numbers:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    561

Greenburgh Villages:                476 (up just 7 from yesterday!)

Town of Greenburgh                1037n (one day increase of 30)

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         75

Ardsley:            52

Tarrytown:      130

Irvington:         42

Dobbs Ferry:  113

Hastings:          64

Today's increases, particularly the villages, are so small that either Greenbugh has bent the curve or the County's reporting geographical numbers is not representative.  

As noted above, the County and State numbers are pretty close today for Westchester but the rate of geographically identifying cases remains flat at 58%. Applying this 58% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  967  

Greenburgh Villages:              821   

Town total                            1,788 (a stable 3% increase over the previous day)   

Greenburgh COVID19: Flattening the Curve in Unincorporated?

The new Greenburgh numbers:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    538

Greenburgh Villages:                469

Town of Greenburgh                1007

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         72

Ardsley:           51

Tarrytown:      129

Irvington:         42

Dobbs Ferry:  113

Hastings:          62

The County's reported total reported above (20,509) has jumped ahead of the NYS numbers released today for Westchester (20,191) and the County's rate of geographically identifying cases continues to rise now reaching has risen to 58%. Applying this 58% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  927  

Greenburgh Villages:              809   

Town total                            1,736 (3% increase over previous day)   

Greenburgh COVID19: April 13 numbers and projections

The new Greenburgh numbers:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:   496

Greenburgh Villages:                431

Town of Greenburgh                 927

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:         68

Ardsley:           49

Tarrytown:      115

Irvington:          41

Dobbs Ferry:  101

Hastings:         57

The County's reported total reported above (19,173) lags behind the NYS numbers released for today for Westchester (19.786) but the County's rate of geographically identifying cases has risen to 55%,. Applying this 55% rate to the County's chart, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  901 

Greenburgh Villages:              784  

Town total                            1,685

Consistent with the County's total numbers, the rate of positive cases for Unincorporated Greenburgh appears to have reached 2% of the population.  The villages overall, particularly Irvington and Hastings, have lower rates in the range of 1.75%.  

Greenburgh COVID19: April 11

It's been three days since we last looked at the Greenburgh numbers:

ow the new Greenburgh numbers:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    460

Greenburgh Villages:                381

Town of Greenburgh Total:      841

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:       52

Ardsley:          46

Tarrytown:      99

Irvington:        39

Dobbs Ferry:   92

Hastings:         53

The County's reported total reported above (18,029), however, lags far behind the NYS numbers released for today for Westchester (18,729) indicating that the county has geographically identified 52% of the cases. Applying this 52% rate to the County's chart, we can now project the number of Greenburgh cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  885 

Greenburgh Villages:              733  

Town total                            1,588

An interesting point that can noted above is the widely growing gap between cases in Unincorporated Greenburgh and the incorporated villages.   

  

Greenburgh COVID19: With more testing, numbers rise

NYS data shows a massive increase in testing (or maybe testing results) in Westchester, more than double the previous day, and the highest testing numbers since March 26:

Source:  https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

I have no idea why testing increased so much yesterday.  If this number actually represents test results reported, perhaps it reflects the processing cycles at the various labs?  

At the same time, Westchester is showing a continuing increase in geographically identifying positive cases.  With 8,025 of 15,917 cases geographically identified, we've finally crossed the 50% threshold.

Now the new Greenburgh numbers:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:    368

Greenburgh Villages:                331

Village Breakdown

Elmsford:        45

Ardsley:          41

Tarrytown:      82

Irvington:        35

Dobbs Ferry:   84

Hastings:         44

SOURCE: Westchester County COVID-19 Confirmed Cases as of 04/08/2020

Using this 50.4% identification number, we can now project the actual number of cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  730 (projected - an increase of 32 since 4/7)

Greenburgh Villages:              657  (projected - a increase of 34 since 4/7)

Town total                            1,387  (projected - an increase of 62 since 4/7) 

We've probably reached the point where 1.5% of Town of Greenburgh residents have tested positive.  

Again, keep in mind this caveat:  we really don't have a firm grasp on the number of cases among Greenburgh's 90,000 residents.   The increase in geographically identified cases  may result from the county's further geographical identification of existing cases in addition to a big increase in testing results reported in Westchester County today.  We can reasonably assume, however, that the actual number of cases in Greenburgh is much higher than those geographically identified by the county in the above map.  

Greenburgh COVID19: we're getting a better sense now

In today's Westchester County geographical, we're starting to get a better sense of positive case distribution as the geographical identification of cases starts to catch up to the total number of positives reported.

As of today (4/7):

Unincorporated Greenburgh:   337
Greenburgh Villages:               299

Villages Breakdown:
Elmsford:      36
Ardsley:        35
Tarrytown:    77
Irvington:      30
Dobbs Ferry: 79
Hastings:       42

SOURCE: Westchester County COVID-19 Confirmed Cases as of 04/07/2020

The projections, however, can now be slightly more accurately estimated. This geographical distribution comes from 7,211 cases geographically confirmed county-wide out of 14,941 county cases total, or 48%.  Actually, the totalnumber reported here by Westchester County is slightly higher than the 14,804 cases for Westchester reported by the state. This 48% geographical identification rate is a big improvement on the 42% we had just two ago.  

Using this 48% identification number, we can now project the actual number of cases as:

Unincorporated Greenburgh:  702 (projected - an incense of 50 since 4/5)

Greenburgh Villages:              623  (projected - a decrease(1) of 3 since 4/5)

Town total                            1,325  (projected - an increase of 47 since 4/5) 

These new numbers and corresponding projections confirm what we suspected two days ago:  we really don't have a firm grasp on the number of cases among Greenburgh's 90,000 residents.   While the. changes in geographically identified cases do show an overall increase (as opposed to the projections), these fluctuations may result from the county's further geographical identification of existing cases in addition to new cases.  We can reasonably assume, however, that the actual number of cases in Greenburgh is much higher than those geographically identified by the county.  

Greenburgh COVID19 Numbers: A lot worse than you think

The most recent geographical breakdown for COVID19 positive cases available from Westchester County, dated April 5, 2020, shows the following for Greenburgh

Greenburgh unincorporated (Edgemont, Hartsdale, Fairview):   274
Incorporated Villages:                                                                   263
Villages are broken as follows:
Ardsley:        32
Elmsford:      32
Tarrytown:     68
Irvington:       27
Dobbs Ferry:  72
Hastings:        32

TOWN OF GREENBURGH TOTAL                                            537

SOURCE: Westchester County COVID-19 Confirmed Cases as of 04/05/2020

HOWEVER, this above chart indicates that the "confirmed" cases geographically identified for the entire county are 5,751 with an additional 7.445 cases geographically "unknown" and another 25 "released."  In other words, only  43% of  the total of 13,221 Westchester Country positive cases are geographically identified.  Actually, it's even lower:  as of today, 4/5/20, New York State shows 13,723 positive cases for Westchester County: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-TableView?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no 
In other words, we only have geographical tracking information for 42% of Westchester County cases.

Based on this 42% rate, let's now project out a rough estimate of the number of cases in the Town of Greenburgh at 1,278, not just 537.  This projection assumes, of course, that the non-identification of cases is evenly distributed across the county geographically.  Considering that Greenburgh is a large population unit, about 10% of the county total, it is not unreasonable to assume that this projection is roughly accurate without further information.  

Applying the same 42% rate projection to each of the breakdowns, we can ROUGHLY ESTIMATE the Town of Greenburgh positive case breakdown as follows:

TOV:      652
Villages: 626

I'm not going to project out the subcomponents further but you can do the math yourself.