Sunday, April 5, 2020

Greenburgh COVID19 Numbers: A lot worse than you think

The most recent geographical breakdown for COVID19 positive cases available from Westchester County, dated April 5, 2020, shows the following for Greenburgh

Greenburgh unincorporated (Edgemont, Hartsdale, Fairview):   274
Incorporated Villages:                                                                   263
Villages are broken as follows:
Ardsley:        32
Elmsford:      32
Tarrytown:     68
Irvington:       27
Dobbs Ferry:  72
Hastings:        32

TOWN OF GREENBURGH TOTAL                                            537



SOURCE: Westchester County COVID-19 Confirmed Cases as of 04/05/2020

HOWEVER, this above chart indicates that the "confirmed" cases geographically identified for the entire county are 5,751 with an additional 7.445 cases geographically "unknown" and another 25 "released."  In other words, only  43% of  the total of 13,221 Westchester Country positive cases are geographically identified.  Actually, it's even lower:  as of today, 4/5/20, New York State shows 13,723 positive cases for Westchester County: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-TableView?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no 
In other words, we only have geographical tracking information for 42% of Westchester County cases.

Based on this 42% rate, let's now project out a rough estimate of the number of cases in the Town of Greenburgh at 1,278, not just 537.  This projection assumes, of course, that the non-identification of cases is evenly distributed across the county geographically.  Considering that Greenburgh is a large population unit, about 10% of the county total, it is not unreasonable to assume that this projection is roughly accurate without further information.  

Applying the same 42% rate projection to each of the breakdowns, we can ROUGHLY ESTIMATE the Town of Greenburgh positive case breakdown as follows:

TOV:      652
Villages: 626

I'm not going to project out the subcomponents further but you can do the math yourself.



           

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