More on Greenburgh Redistricting: comparing the voting records (so far) of representatives Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman

Greenburgh is currently split between two congressional districts, with 1/3 of the town lying in CD16 (Rep. Jamaal Bowman) and 2/3 in CD17 (Rep. Mondaire Jones).  The town faces a changed congressional district configuration next year that will apply for the next ten years after redistricting will be finalized in Albany in early 2022.  As I wrote last week, current congressional redistricting proposals pose three differing maps with respect to Greenburgh: 

1.  The Bowman Plan: the status quo continuing to divide Greenburgh with the south third of town  (the villages of Hastings and Ardsley along with the Edgemont school district) in CD16, and the remaining 2/3 in CD17.  The status quo is the preferred plan of many supporters of Rep. Jamaal Bowman who spoke at the recent lower Hudson Valley redistricting hearing. The Bowman Plan conflicts with census reality and is not a realistic outcome. 

2.  The Independent Redistricting Commission Letters Plan: The Democratic members of the IRC have proposed placing 90% of Greenburgh in CD16 with some neighborhoods in north Tarrytown and north Elmsford remaining in CD17.  This would make Greenburgh mostly a Bowman district. 

3.  The Unofficial Westchester Democratic Party "Berger" Plan:  Democratic Party leadership in Westchster Co. proposes placing all of Greenburgh in CD17.  Considering the influence of the party and Democrats' control over the redistricting process in Albany, this is the most likely outcome, placing  Greenburgh entirely within Mondaire Jones's district 

Maybe now is a good time to compare the voting records of Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman in Congress.  

Not surprisingly, the two progressive Congress members have a very similar voting record. According  to 538's Biden Score, however, Mondaire Jones has voted 100% in line with Pres. Biden's positions, while Jamaal Bowman's score is 92.9%

According to Pro Publica, the two freshmen have differed on only 10 votes out of 365. In each of these ten bills, all of which passed the House, Jones supported and Bowman opposed the Democratic majority in Congress. 

These votes are:

1.  The Invest in America Act on 11/5 .   In his most notorious vote to date, Bowman joined the Squad Six (Bowman, AOC, Tlaib, Omar, Bush, Pressley)  to oppose the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (BIF) which 215 House Dems and even 13 Republicans (including four from NY) supported.

2.  House Res.  760 "Expressing solidarity with Cuban citizens demonstrating peacefully for fundamantal freedoms, condemding the Cuban regime's acts of repression, and calling for the immediate release of arbitrarily detained Cuban citizens."  On Nov. 3, Bowman was one of 40 Dems who opposed 175 Dems who supported this Cuban resolution.  Bowman found company in his opposition with fellow New Yorkers Ocasio-Cortez, Nadler, Meng, Clark, and Velazquez. 

3.  RENACER: The Reinforcing Nicaragua's Adherence to Conditions for Electoral Reform Act of 2021  to establish measures to monitor, report on, and address corruption and human rights abuses in Nicaragua.   Bowman (along with Ocasio-Cortez, Espaillat, Velazquez) was among 29 House Dems voting against.  Jones and 184 House Dems voted in favor.

4.  The Darren Drake Act."This bill directs the Department of Homeland Security to develop and disseminate best practices for vehicle rental companies and dealers to report suspicious behavior to law enforcement at the point of sale of a rental vehicle."   on 10/19, House Dems voted 211 to 8 in favor of this bill, which Bowman and fellow New Yorker AOC opposed.  

5.  The Libya Stabilization Act: "To advance a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Libya and support the people of Libya."  On 9/28,  211 House Dems voted in favor, with only Bowman, AOC, Cori Bush and Rashida Tlaib opposed. 

6.  Meeks Amendment to Bill authorizing fiscal year 2022 appropriations for military activities and programs of the Department of Defense. on 9/23, Bowman was the only Democrat to join 203 Republicans in voting against the Meeks amendment.

7.  Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2021 to respond to the 1/6 attack on the US Capitol complex and to expand Afghan visa program.  On 7/29,  Bowman, again as one of the Squad Six, voted against this bill which was suppported by 213 of his House Democratic colleague . 

8.  Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership Act:  "This bill provides statutory authority for the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership Program, an interagency program launched in 2005 to partner with countries in the Sahel and Maghreb regions of Africa to counter terrorism and violent extremism."  On July 29, 214 House Dems voted in favor; 4 (Bowman, AOC, Cori Bush and Katie Porter) voted against. 

9.  Preventing Crimes Against Veterans Act:  "This bill establishes a new criminal offense for knowingly executing, or attempting to execute, a scheme to defraud an individual of veterans' benefits, or in connection with obtaining veteran's benefits for an individual."   On 6/22, 211 House Dems voted in faovr while Bowman joined 4 Squad members (AOC, Omar, Pressley and Bush)  to vote against (Tlaib defied the Squad to vote in favor). 

10.  HR 335: "To provide for an exception to a limitation against appointment of persons as Secretary of Defense within seven years of relief from active duty as a regular commissioned officer of the Armed Forces."   205 House Dems supported this 1/21 bill to allow Gen. Lloyd Austin to become Secretary of Defense, while Bowman was one of 15 Dems who opposed. 

With the exception of the BIF vote, all the differences with Jones arise from Bowman's departing from the Democratic Party majority on foreign policy or domestic security issues.  

For context, how do the 10 vote disagreements between Jones and Bowman compare to their voting records contrasted with other Democrats in Congress? 

Using Pro Publica's database, we can make these one-on-one voting records comparisons.

DISAGREEMENTS AMONG FRIENDS: vote differences between Democratic congress members:

I.  Jones & Bowman v. The Squad 

		AOC	Pressley	Cori Bush	I. Omar	Tlaib
Mondiare Jones		12	9	20	12	15
Jamaal Bowman		4	4	11	7	11

II.  Jones & Bowman v.  Dem Moderates

		Gottheimer NJ	Golden - ME	Crist FL	Murphy FL
Mondiare Jones		18	30	13	16
Jamaal Bowman		27	38	23	26

III.   Jones & Bowman v,. The New York Democratic Congressional Delegation:

		Espaillat	Velazquez	Torres	Clarke	Meng	Tonko
Mondaire Jones		1	3	3	4	4	4
Jamaal Bowman		9	11	12	10	12	14

		C. Maloney	Meeks	Jeffries	Nadler	SP Maloney	Higgins
Mondaire Jones		5	6	6	7	8	8
Jamaal Bowmaan		14	16	16	14	18	18

		Morelle	Rice	Suozzi	AOC	Delgado
Mondaire Jones		10	11	11	12	16
Jamaal Bowmaan		20	21	21	4	26

Again, these are a small number of votes out of 365 total in the 117th Congress, but it does stand out that Jones's voting record is closer to 12 other NY Democrats than to Bowman's vote history.   Bowman's vote record, conversely, is closer to 3 Squad members than to Jones's record.   Among the New York Delegation, however, Bowman is still closer to Jones than any other NY congress members except Ocasio-Cortez, of course, and also Rep. Adriano Espaillat (who has nearly the identical voting record as Jones, disagreeing with Jones only on the RENACER vote).   

As the New York and Westchester County Democratic Party leadership decides the future congressional representation of our town, Greenburgh voters should familiarize themselves with the small but arguably significant differences between the voting records of the two progressive congressmen who represent the town now and will do so in a yet-to-be-determined configuration for possibly the next decade.  If residents do have strong opinions about whether they want to live in the Congressional district of Mondaire Jones or Jamaal Bowman, they should speak up now to inform the Democratic Party leadership of Westchester and the Independent Redistricting Committee about their preference. 

Developments in Greenburgh Redistricting: Sorting out the future of the Bowman & Jones districts (and AOC makes an appearance)

The New York State Independent Redistricting Commission held a public hearing in White Plains on November 8th where the Commission heard nearly five hours of comments on the proposed redistricting maps for congressional, state senate and assembly districts for Westchester and Rockland Counties as well as parts of the north Bronx. 

In response to the Commission's proposed Congressional redistricting maps two different approaches were presented by organized teams of advocates at the hearings, leaving us with three competing visions: 

I.  The IRC Letters Plan:  The Independent Redistricting Commission "Letters" Plan presented by the commission's Democratic Party members on Sept. 15th was previously reviewed here for its impact on Greenburgh.  (The Republican "Notes" plan is dead on arrival, and irrelevant to this discussions).   

II. The Berger Plan:   At the 11/8 hearing, Suzanne Berger, Chair of the Westchester County Democratic Party - although she did not identify her position - introduced alternative maps in a powerpoint banally titled "Lower Hudson Valley Apportionment" (authors and endorsors are not identified in the document).  County Legislator Mary Jane Shimsky spoke after Berger in favor of this plan's approach.   These maps were subsequently shared on the Rivertowns Vote Facebook page by Gaby Bordwin, a prominent Democratic Party leader from Hastings and Shimsky's legislative aide.  While not actually labeled as such, these proposals can be assumed to represent the "unofficial but effectively official" recommendation of the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership toward congressional redistricting.  

The public rationale presented for replacing the IRC Letters Plan with the Berger Plan is that the county's infrastructure runs north south and the division of the county among congressional districts (necessitated because the county's population exceeds the 770,000 limit on new Congressional district) should reflect a West (Hudson River) and East (Long Island Sound) orientation.  Nevertheless, the County Democratic Party's process for drafting this proposal and the influences and interests taken into account are opaque, giving rise to the sense that the plan was drafted in a "smoke filled zoom" without input broader than party leadership.  It might be naive not to assume that the Berger Plan reflects the competing and differing level of influence of Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman's offices and supporters over the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership.  

III.  The Bowman Plan:  A differing and conflicting vision was endorsed by a clearly orchestrated series of speakers who argued in favor of preserving NY CD16 in its present form to the applause of many hearing attendees.   Although none of these speakers mentioned Rep. Bowman, it seems rather obvious that these speakers were organized by his office as suggested by this meeting announcement: 

For lack of better names, I'm calling the "keep CD16" approach, the Bowman Plan.  Unfortunately, the Bowman Plan supporters failed to present an actual map at the hearing to demonstrate whether their plan is feasible.  As IRC Chairman, David Imamura pointed out, Westchester County creates a "bottleneck" that impacts redistricting for the entire state.  And as anyone who takes the time to try redistricting the state's 26 congressional districts using various websites has found, it becomes immediately obvious that keeping CD16 "as is" is impossible. 

CD16

CURRENTLY & BOWMAN PLAN (PLAN III):  

 IRC LETTERS PROPOSAL (PLAN I):

BERGER PLAN (PLAN II):

CD16 NOTES:   The IRC Letters Plan simply shifts CD16 north out of most of the Bronx, except portions of the Woodlawn Heights and Wakefield neighborhood adjacent to Mount Vernon.  Otherwise, this proposal creates a single central/south Westchester Congressional district stretching from the river to the sound that gifts Bowman the Democratic vote strongholds of north/central Greenburgh (except north Tarrytown) and White Plains, as well as Harrison.  

The Berger Plan also moves CD16 north but retains Co-op City  and Pelham from the Bronx.   Under this plan, however, much of New Rochelle is handed over to AOC's CD14, which contradicts the Berger Plan's rationale of uniting shore lines in single congressional districts (not to mention the Yonkers shoreline remaining in CD16).   The Berger Plan gives the  Greenburgh portions of current CD16 (Hastings, Edgemont, Ardsley) to CD17 together with Scarsdale and all of White Plains.  However, the Berger Plan extends CD16 north through Rye and Harrison, and divides the town of Mount Pleasant, in a classic gerrymander snakepath to reach north to encompass the east half of north Westchester and much of Putnam County.  

CD17

CURRENT CD17:

IRC LETTER PLAN FOR CD17 (PLAN I:

BERGER PLAN (PLAN III:

CD17 NOTES: The IRC Letters Plan pushes CD17 north as central and north Greenburgh (with the exception of north Tarrytown) are handed to CD16.  Under the Letter Plan, CD 17 would now encompasses most of Putnam county and expand west to parts of Orange County. I think it's safe to assume that Mondaire Jones is not thrilled by the IRC Letters Plan which takes away the Democratic Party vote basin of Greenburgh as well as White Plains, where he lives, in exchange for presumably less progressive areas in Putnam and Orange. 

The Berger Plan, on the other hand, is much more favorable to Mondaire Jones as it would expand his hold over Greenburgh and White Plains while gifting him Scarsdale.  While he would still receive much of Orange County, he would avoid Putnam.  

Impact on Greenburgh:

Current districts divide Greenburgh with the villages of Hastings and Ardsley, along with the Edgemont School district, falling in CD16 with the rest in CD17.  This is the preferred map of Rep. Bowman's supporters. 

The IRC Letters Plan would unite Greenburgh in CD16, with the exception of Tarrytown north of Rte 187 and portions of North Elmsford which would remain in CD17.

The Berger Plan unites Greenburgh in CD17 to the presumed approval of Rep. Mondaire Jones.  

Final thoughts: 

I may be totally wrong (not unusual) but the Berger Plan suggests to me the influence of Mondaire Jones's office and supporters as well as Jones's strength in Westchester in comparison to Jamaal Bowman.  While both representatives are freshmen, progressive Democrats, much of Bowman's influence is dissipated in Westchester as a large part of CD16 is currently in the Bronx. In addition, Jones is a rising fundraising star in comparison to Bowman.   There is no question that CD16 and CD17 will remain Democratic under any plan for the foreseeable future, but the friendliness of the changing districts to progressive, even Squad-aligned, representatives remains open to question and a reconfigured district may spur a moderate-Democratic primary challenge to Bowman.  Democratic Party activist Catherine Lederer-Plaskett has pointed out that under the Berger Plan, 50% of  CD16's population would remain in the Bronx, Yonkers and Mount Vernon, but the scripted protests of Bowman Plan supporters at the 11/8 hearing indicate that the Bowman team wants very much to hold onto his current north Bronx /South Westchester realm.

While I've pointed out above that the Bowman Plan is not reality based because of census changes, the Berger Plan has not presented its underlying data or downloadable maps to show how these proposals configure with the rest of New York's congressional districts and prove that they are actually feasible.

It's intriguing to speculate the extent to which AOC's team was consulted in drafting the Berger Plan.  AOC is given much of Bowman's current north Bronx precincts (including possibly less AOC-friendly Riverdale) but also is handed most of New Rochelle, introducing a third congressional district into Westchester, and suggesting some sort of agreement. 

What happens next:

The IRC will work toward presenting a single plan to submit for approval by the state legislature and governor in January.   With respect to Westchester, the Berger Plan will likely be very influential in shaping the final map (should the IRC agree on a final map) for Westchester congressional districts as it impliedly represents the wishes of the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership.  If no such final IRC plan is presented, or if it is rejected in Albany, then the state legislature will take over the map drawing.  

New York's Congressional Delegation Raises - and Spends - Money for 2022 Campaigns

Despite redistricting uncertainty, NY's Congressional representatives have been raising (and spending) campaign funds in advance of the 2022 mid-terms, with varying levels of success.  The census reduced NY from its current total of 27 congressional seats to 26.  Two incumbents - Republicans Lee Zeldin and Tom Reed - have announced they are not running for reelection leaving NY with 25 congressional incumbents who, at the moment, appear to be running for another term in 2022 and need money to fuel their campaigns.   

Below, I've listed each NY current representative by district number.  Using filings listed at www.fec.gov, I've tracked (1) the total amount raised by the candidate in 2021, which includes individual contributions, and money received from PACs and other political committees, including transfers from candidates' "victory funds";  (2) contributions from individual donors within the "2021 Raised" number to give a sense of how reliant candidates are on PAC and committee money in comparison to individuals; (3)  total money spent in 2021, (4) "cash on hand" in the campaign account as of December 31, 2020, (5) cash on hand as of September 20, 2021, and (6) "Raised Total" which adds to "2021 Riased" money raised by a candidate's "victory fund" that was not already transferred to the candidate's campaign account (which money, however, may not necessarily be available for direct campaign spending). 

[In addition to their regular campaign account, a number of New York representatives have Victory Funds (VF), which operate together with party committees, such as the DCCC (for Democrats).  The candidate may then transfer a portion of the VF revenue to their personal campaign account.  In 2021, this approach was used most actively by Hakeem Jeffries, who has transferred $546,431 (out of $1,314,845 raised) from his VF to his campaign and Elise Stefanik who has transferred $281,809 (from $566,279 raised) to her campaign.  Other representatives who have transferred more than $100,000 to their campaigns from VFs include Gregory Meeks, Ritchie Torres, and Sean Maloney.] 

                                   1.                   2                   3.                 4.                  5.                   6.     

CD	REP.	2021 Raised	(Individuals)	Spent 2021	COH 2020	COH 9/30/21	Raised Total
1	Zeldin	687,721	583,458	804,518	166,236	49,439	689,013
2	Garbarino	1,027,560	359,184	277,223	131,854	882,191	1,082,560
3	Suozzi	1,766,684	1,241,860	546,276	1,903,703	3,151,111	1,766,684
4	Rice	395,589	208,714	285,731	189,845	299,703	395,589
5	Meeks	955,857	342,785	534,143	779,722	1,201,436	1,267,422
6	Meng	560,680	296,147	201,777	395,520	754,423	560,680
7	Velazquez	193,529	139,029	177,287	310,382	326,624	193,529
8	Jeffries	2,224,039	1,060,857	1,580,870	2,145,322	2,788,491	2,992,453
9	Clarke	231,434	91,547	234,483	46,302	43,254	231,434
10	Nadler	492,152	375,652	298,948	508,339	701,543	597,152
11	Malliotakis	1,494,104	1,265,084	328,960	20,796	1,188,087	1,497,151
12	C. Maloney	1,363,674	842,517	564,011	108,629	916,079	1,363,674
13	Espaillat	494,065	399,315	165,584	113,577	430,931	494,065
14	AOC	6,413,480	6,297,086	4,920,979	4,297,383	5,789,884	6,413,480
15	Torres	1,939,060	1,688,291	274,942	389,690	2,053,808	2,055,293
16	Bowman	632,787	601,750	439,462	77,474	270,799	632,787
17	Jones	1,809,107	1,683,144	368,871	797,588	2,237,824	1,809,107
18	SP Maloney	1,688,828	1,266,866	865,858	860,002	1,682,971	2,366,453
19	Delgado	2,453,614	2,223,650	506,444	3,064,789	5,011,960	2,453,614
20	Tonko	585,495	251,930	345,595	811,660	1,051,560	585,495
21	Stefanik	3,501,641	2,998,687	2,854,307	1,983,540	2,630,875	3,786,111
22	Tenney	1,741,599	830,807	1,137,160	400,109	1,007,306	1,819,499
23	Reed	686,614	600,146	745,682	182,389	123,322	686,614
24	Katko	1,409,247	586,906	418,272	272,061	1,263,037	1,409,247
25	Morelle	356,856	179,809	214,230	160,175	302,801	366,856
26	Higgins	716,902	422,361	307,561	1,111,052	1,520,364	716,902
27	Jacobs	451,761	325,839	228,759	62,829	285,831	451,761
						37,965,654	38,684,625
NOTES:
Zeldin: Spending includes $380,000 transferred (7/11) to Zeldin campaign account for NY governor.
Jacobs:   $550,000 owed by campaign is entirely personal loans from Jacobs to his campaign.
Carolyn Maloney:  $200,000 is owed by campaign in personal loan from Maloney to campaign.
Retiring representatives are highlighted in yellow.  Source: www.fec.gov

Some numbers jump out. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the undisputed champion of NY congressional fundraising.  Her receipts more than double those of any other NY representative in 2021 with the exception of Republican rising star Elise Stefanik in a distant second place.  Other impressive fundraisers are Brooklyn powerbroker Hakeem Jeffries, Antonio Delgado, Sean Maloney and freshmen Ritchie Torres. Stefanik doubles the closest Republican, Claudia Tenney.   Fundraising laggards in 2021 are Nydia Valazquez (only $193K raised), Yvette Clark and Kathleen Rice. 

Just as noteworthy as AOC's amazing haul is the fact that more than 98% of her 2021 fundraising comes from individual donors.  Only Jamaal Bowman (95%), Mondaire Jones (93%) and Antonio Delgado (91%) come close to this rate of individual donations as a percentage of total money raised. In stark contrast, only 35% of Long Island Republican Andrew Garbarino's funds come from individuals. 

And again, AOC's individual donations total more than doubles that of all other NY representatives in 2021, including Elise Stefanik, again in second place.   NYC Democrat Yvette Clark is far behind the rest with only having collected only $91,547 from individuals so far in 2021. 

AOC has also spent the most money in 2021 by far ($2million more than Stefanik). Even after spending nearly $1.5million on merch for her online store, AOC still holds more than $5.7million in cash in her account as of Sept. 30. Predictably, Stefanik and Jeffries are big spenders, along with Claudia Tenney, although much of her spending was related to her recount effort arising from the razor thin margin in the 2020 elections. 

In the effort to accumulate war chests before the campaigns season starts, AOC is followed, perhaps surprisingly by Antonio Delgado who holds just over $5million.  Delgado will need the funds as his district is expected to take a new shape after redistricting, although possibly more favorable to a Democrat.  Tom Suozzi from Nassau County is a distant third in "cash on hand."  Suozzi may face a reelection battle as he will probably gain more Republicans in a redrawn district as state Democrats seek to gerrymander away at least one of the two Republican districts on Long Island.  Incumbents in financial difficulties as we approach the 2022 campaign season are Yvette Clark (with a sobering $43,254 in her account) and freshman Jamaal Bowman with just $270,799.  Bowman's district is expected to be shifted mostly into Westchester County which, combined with his lackluster financial position, should start ringing alarm bells at his campaign headquarters.  Other cash poor campaigns, include far west Republican Chris Jacobs, Democrat Joe Morelle in Rochester, and, again, Nydia Velazquez and Kathleen Rice. 

Below are third quarter fundraising and spending totals (without adding in non-transferred victory fund money).  

CD	REP.	3Q Raised	3Q Spent
1	Zeldin	49,846	403,592
2	Garbarino	416,197	95,065
3	Suozzi	1,049,776	163,418
4	Rice	73,439	96,459
5	Meeks	354,230	164,795
6	Meng	181,863	83,933
7	Velazquez	16,351	39,598
8	Jeffries	881,980	580,625
9	Clarke	105,780	104,616
10	Nadler	175,100	127,971
11	Malliotakis	553,071	165,542
12	C. Maloney	473,441	215,035
13	Espaillat	175,650	75,988
14	AOC	1,679,781	1,231,744
15	Torres	717,755	95,102
16	Bowman	175,340	140,324
17	Jones	559,289	132,203
18	SP Maloney	521,118	227,486
19	Delgado	665,189	111,312
20	Tonko	192,200	111,432
21	Stefanik	1,140,948	611,262
22	Tenney	410,398	175,457
23	Reed	3,605	39,047
24	Katko	488,743	143,569
25	Morelle	57,767	98,416
26	Higgins	227,624	154,169
27	Jacobs	187,712	92,088

Tom Suozzi won 3Q by netting $886,358.  Zeldin transferred $380K to his NY state campaign account for his run for governor.  AOC spent $423,612 on non-itemized payments to a credit card company named "Veyond!." What is going on with Valazquez - raising $16,351 (just $6,851 from individuals!) this quarter - while spending $40K?  A few other Dems -  Kathleen Rice, Joe Morelle - also spent more than they raised, whle Yvette Clark barely broke even, and Jamaal Bowman netted just $35K. Chris Jacobs was the laggard among the six still active Republicans, raising $95K more than he spent, while Stefanik was, again, the second highest earner (behind AOC) in the state. .  .