Campaign Finance in the 2021 Greenburgh Supervisor's Race

Here are the 2021 financial totals with "recent" campaigns listed for comparison.  

2021	RAISED	SPENT	PER VOTE	CLOSING BALANCE	PAUL'S HEADSTART
FEINER	$46,816	$84,142	$21.41	$49,937	$87,263
YOUNG	$49,517	$48,886	$19.86	$630
TOTAL	$96,333	$133,028	$20.81
2013
FEINER	$16,838	$67,760	$17.61	$82,055	$132,977
BERNSTEIN	$58,233	$53,724	$25.08	$4,509
2007
FEINER	$52,980	$71,416	$17.25	$120,064	$138,500
BERGER	$37,519	$76,177	$34.75

1.  FUNDS RAISED

A.  Paul

Paul "only" raised $46,816 but I'm sure Paul would concede that he didn't put much of an effort into raising new money.  For example, I'm aware of only one fundraising event held on his behalf.  Starting a campaign with $87,263 in the account can be very helpful.   

Of the $46,816 Paul did raise in the campaign,  $35,806 came from "itemized" donors (listed individually on the financial reports) and another $8,002 from "small" donors - generally those who gave under $100.   Among his 157 itemized donors (including partnerships and businesses), nine gave $1000 or more, led by Paul loyalist Don Cannon (member, Greenburgh Board of Assessment Review), who gave $4000, and the household of Peter Guggenheimer (member of the Greenburgh Conservation Advisory Council) and, presumably his partner Deborah Jerome, who together donated $4000 to Paul. Vikas Agrawal, a recent successful Ardsley school board candidate, also gave Paul $2000.  It is startling to see that 24 itemized donors from Edgemont gave Paul $10,550.   

Perhaps most significantly, of these 157 itemized donors, almost all (143) have Greenburgh addresses.   Among Paul's contributions from organizations, noteworthy donors included the Teamsters ($1500) and the Cricket Club of Westchester ($201). 

B. Tasha

Tasha actually outraised the multi-generational incumbent.   Unlike Paul's campaign, Tasha itemized all 308 of her donors (many of whom made multiple donations).   These included 166 $100+ donors (compared to 157  $100+ donors for Paul).  Tasha benefitted from 8 individuals giving $1000.  Tasha's only donors exceeding $2000 came from the household of Margaret Bradbury and Paul Slesinger of Larchmont who, together, gave Tasha $3,700.  

Tasha's overall success in attracting donors and donations, however, is belied by finding that among her big donors, only 76 - fewer than half - live within Greenburgh.  When we break out the major donations by geography, we see the strength of Paul's fundraising that was concealed by his mediocre total:  his dominance in raising money within Greenburgh from eligible primary voters.   

GREENBURGH ADDRESSS BIG ($100+) DONATIONS	TASHA	PAUL
WP	$3,922	$7,025
Tarrytown	$1,651	$1,450
Edgemont	$2,925	$10,550
Irvington	$2,854	$750
Hartsdale	$825	$4,600
Elmsford	$2,092	$2,901
Dobbs Ferry	$2,626	$2,200
Ardlsey	$2,614	$4,180
Hastings	$350	$1,150
Valhalla	$0	$400
IN DISTRICT BIGS	$19,859	$35,206
OUT OF DISTRICT BIGS	$23,924	$3,601
SMALL DONATIONS	$5,733	$8,002
TOTAL	$49,516	$46,809

Tasha Young did an impressive job of raising funds in her first campaign, even out-raising her opponent. The problem for Tasha, however, was that Paul was far more successful in raising money from the most important donors:  Greenburgh primary voters.  

II.  SPENDING

A. Paul

Paul's campaign spending reports are streamlined, transparent and a model for filings.  Paul spent $64,539 on campaign literature & mailing, $2,306 on lawn signs and $5,108 on internet and website related expenses.  Thus, Paul directly allocated $71,953 (86%) of his expenditures to materials (hardcopies and online)  to promote his campaign directly to voters.  (You know where I'm going with this.)  He also spent a very efficient $4,149 on campaign salaries and consultant fees.  His only "frill" was nearly $3800 spent on car related expenses.   Paul and Andy Laub deserve acknowledgement for running an efficient municipal campaign.  Of course, with nearly three times the financial resources available compared to Paul's challenger, they had room for error - but Paul and Andy didn't err.  Which leads us to....  

B.  Tasha

Considering Paul's $87K head start, for Tasha to be competitive it was absolutely crucial that she raise well and spend efficiently.  She came close to accomplishing the first goal (although she was ultimately undermined by her comparative lack of success among Greenburgh donors), but failed in the second part.   

Tasha spent $48,886 but looking at her campaign's confusing financial filings strongly suggests that this spending was inefficiently prioritized.  The most glaring spending category for Tasha's campaign was  $18,800 spent on nine individuals described as "campaign consultants" (led by Kehani Brea at $8,000 and Jovan Richards at $3,500) plus another $2,310 more on staff salaries.  (Contrast that with Paul whose staff/consultant costs were $4,169).  Tasha's campaign spent another  $3,762 on "fundraising" plus $2,500 for a fundraiser (Kevin Edgar), which together with personnel/consultant costs accounted for $27,262 - more than half of the campaign's revenue.   

From what I can figure out, reviewing the convoluted expenditure reports, the amounts spent on promotional campaign expenses were:  campaign mailings and literature at $7,350; lawn signs at $1504;  online ads: $275; tees, buttons, totes at $1444;  and television ads at $2457.   Despite fundraising success, Tasha's campaign spent only about $14,000 (I'm rounding up assuming I missed internet/website spending)  on the typical, publicity-oriented type expenses one would expect from a political campaign.  I may have undercounted somewhat as the expense filings are confusing, and I welcome being corrected.    

Most troubling, the campaign's filings report $57,425 in "outstanding liability" to the campaign consultants, led again by Kehani Brea ($36,300) and Jovan Richards, executive director of the Westchetser County Democratic Committee and president of the New York State Young Democrats ($14,000).  Has the campaign settled with the consultants and received releases from their billings? 

It's unfortunate for Tasha that her fundraising achievements were undermined by inefficient spending allocation.  Where Paul spent nearly $72,000 on direct campaign, publicity materials and ads, it appears that Tasha was able to spend no more than $14,000 on such expenses -  less than one-fifth.  What did those consultants accomplish to justify monopolizing so much of the campaign's hard-earned revenue, let alone the exorbitant billings that apparently remain outstanding?  They are welcome to respond below or email me to explain.  

Supervisor and County Clerk Primary - Greenburgh Breakdown

 We have the final election district totals from the June Democratic primary.  

I.  SUPERVISOR

II.  COUNTY CLERK

Definitions:

Hartsdale: Elections Districts: 41-46 36-41, 56, 57, 66, 71, 72, 75
Fairview:  42, 44-46, 61, 63, 64, 78

Ardsley school district - TOV: 32, 43, 50, 62, 73

Pocantico Hills/ Valhalla school districts:  29, 68/  47, 48, 67

Elmsford school disrict TOV:  51, 77, 81

E. Tarrytown 30 /  East Irvington  31

Rivertowns:  Hastings, Dobbs Ferry, Irvington, Tarrytown

North Greenburgh, Elmford village & TOV school district, Fairview, Pocantico Hills & Valhalla school district, east Tarrytown and East Irvington

South Greenbugh:  Hartsdale, Ardsley village and TOV school district, Edgemont. 

Unlike the Greenburgh Democratic Party, I include High Point (ED 41) as part of Hartsdale

NOTES:   I don't have a lot to add here. Feiner was dominant (57%+) in every section of the town except tiny Elmsford village (where Tasha grew up) and Edgemont which produced its kneejerk anti-Paul vote but seemed barely invested in the race. Despite the loss in Edgemont, Feiner enjoyed his strongest showing in TOV in his four 21st century primaries (yes, we measure Paul's electoral success in centuries).  It's hard to look at these four primaries - especially the last two - and not come away with the conclusion that Feiner is as close to unbeatable in Greenburgh as any candidate could ever be. Sure, an ideal candidate with perfect timing could upset him, but aspiring politicians are real people and the Skrulls haven't yet sent a Superhero-Supervisor candidate.  

The noticeable gap between the Supervisor and County Clerk's breakdowns arises from the "north Greenburgh" numbers where Feiner flipped Idoni's results in his favor.  Idoni is about as generic an older, white, male incumbent Democrat as could exist and his stumble against Shanae Williams in Greenburgh's neighborhoods with the highest rates of minioirty voters is not a shock. Idoni's problems in north Greenburgh serve to highlight Feiner's remarkable identity-proof popularity among Democratic primary voters all over Greenburgh (except for Edgemont with its very localized reasons for opposition).  As far as the difference in the north Greenburgh performances of Williams and Young, I think that has more to do with their opponents (i.e., Paul's strength) than anything really substantive that distinguishes the two losing candidates from each other.    

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Town Supervisor Race Results Updated (hopefully final)

Here are the purportedly final Greenburgh Town Supervisor race results.  Don't sue me if they change slightly (this is a "cite at your own risk" blog).  After all, the County Clerk count continues.  

There's some fun information to unpack here.

• Tasha was (comparatively) competitive on June 22 but Paul had already surged to a nearly  insurmountable lead in the pre-primary voting.  34% of primary voters had cast ballots before primary day and Paul won 71% of those voters, taking a 927 vote advantage into primary day. Tasha needed 61% of the 4235 primary day voters to make up for Paul's pre-primary lead. For a newcomer against a long-term incumbent with much deeper financial resources and 100% name recognition,  61% of any significant voter group is a very steep hill to climb.  It's not a stretch to contend that Paul had won the primary before primary day.  
• The pre-primary voting cited above  makes starkly and painfullly obvious the disastrous decision of Tasha's campaign TO SEND THEIR FIRST MAILERS TO VOTERS ONLY A FEW DAYS BEFORE PRIMARY DAY.  I received a handwritten postcard from Tasha's campaign on June 14 - after early voting started  Many Democrats I know did not get such a postcard.   I got my first - and only -  Tasha mass mailing on June 18 - the  Friday before primary day - AFTER [NEARLY] ONE-THIRD OF PRIMARY VOTERS HAD ALREADY VOTED! In contrast, I had received four large, glossy mailings from Paul spread over several weeks, starting well before early voting with the first mailer apparently timed to coincide with the BOE's sending out a large chunk of the absentee ballots in mid-May.  
• Turnout:  with 37,308 "active" Democrats enrolled in Greenburgh, turnout was 17%.  Paul's convincing triumph diverts from the fact that barely 11% of Greenburgh Democrats voted for him.  For broader context with 66,562 voters in Greenburgh - and no November opposition - Paul will take the oath for his 16th term as Supervisor backed by the votes of just 6% of Greenburgh voters.  Of course the obverse is true too: for all her effort, Tasha convinced only 7% (rounded up) of Greenburgh Democrats to fill in the circle next to her name on primary ballots.   
• A stroll through Greenburgh Supervisor primary history in the 21st Century:
  
  
   Rather consistent isn't it?  These Supervisor primaries just don't expand far beyond the 6,000 "hardcore" Dem primary voters.  Paul can get 3000 votes for and 2000 against just by breathing. Tasha can salvage some pride in outperforming Paul's two previous challengers both in total votes and percentage.  

Next:  Future posts will be sporadic as we're not expecting the final financial disclosures until mid-July and I'm not sure when we'll get the final breakdown for the town's 81 electoral districts.