Unincorporated rate is 1252/100K
Villages total rate: 1023/100K
However, we see great variations within Greenburgh's villages.
Greenburgh's incorporated villages COVID19 positive case rates:
Elmsford: 1502/100K
Ardsley: 1147 "
Tarrytown 1134 "
Dobbs Fer:1025 "
Hastings: 804 "
Irvington: 642 "
Elmsford's case rate is high, as the only political division within the town that we know exceeds the County rate. Elmsford village (only 5000 residents) is surrounded by Unincorporated which suggests that there may be variation in the rates within Unincorporated's much larger population and more geographically spread out population.
The real surprise here is Irvington's consistently low rate particularly as that village is sandwiched between Tarrytown and Dobbs Ferry which much higher rates. Irvington's rate is just over half of the TOV rate and 42% of the Elmsford rate.
Let's look at a few neighbors for some context:
Ossining Village: 2030/100K
Sleepy Hollow: 1785
New Rochelle: 1672
(All well higher than anything we find in Greenburgh)
White Plains. 1371
Scarsdale 904
NOTE: all population numbers are 2018 census projections appearing at censusreporter.org. Rates are based on the County's geographically reported number of 12,197 total which is 58% of the County's total of 20,893 and the state's total of 20,947 for Westchester County. All of the above rates are likely 40% higher than listed above.
At this point, a good six weeks or so into this crisis its fair to ask some pointed question about County/Town reporting:
1. Why don't we have a geographical breakdown for deaths?
2. Also for nursing homes/senior facilities: the County Executive informs us that a large % of the COVID19 deaths come from these facilities: we don't need that names of the facilities, but why not a geographical breakdown?
3. Why do the geographical numbers still lag at 58% of the County's 20K cases? Why can't this reporting gap be closed already? Massachusetts by comparison geographically identifies for the public more than 98%(!) of its nearly 30K cases.
Westchester County and the Town of Greenburgh really need to step up in their reporting information. Lack of information always breed mistrust in leadership.
Now let's return to the regular report and projections
The new Greenburgh numbers:
Unincorporated Greenburgh: 561
Greenburgh Villages: 476 (up just 7 from yesterday!)
Town of Greenburgh 1037n (one day increase of 30)
Village Breakdown
Elmsford: 75
Ardsley: 52
Tarrytown: 130
Irvington: 42
Dobbs Ferry: 113
Hastings: 64
Today's increases, particularly the villages, are so small that either Greenbugh has bent the curve or the County's reporting geographical numbers is not representative.
As noted above, the County and State numbers are pretty close today for Westchester but the rate of geographically identifying cases remains flat at 58%. Applying this 58% rate to the County's geographical numbers, we project the number of Greenburgh cases as:
Unincorporated Greenburgh: 967
Greenburgh Villages: 821
Town total 1,788 (a stable 3% increase over the previous day)
We know King Paul thinks assisted living is the cats meow These institutions have become death traps and prisons for the old old and infirm locked inside
ReplyDeleteNo visitors and who knows the health of any aides. So it’s reasonable to argue Big Paul is hiding the truth.
Again without deaths and other demographics the numbers don’t tell us much of significance. The testing protocol is uneven and unreliable at this point. Instead of focusing on the census which is a ten year number and which determines millions of dollars in allocation of federal dollars in 914 and NYS putz paul is doing the only thing he can - acting as a gopher emailing material available to anyone giving a chimera he cares or can contribute something useful. Anyone paying attention knows he is both a charlatan and a political boa constrictor strangling the town to death. His departure from Greenburgh cannot come soon enough and hopefully he takes his little dog Diane Juettner too.