Saturday, January 23, 2021

The Rivertown v. Town Democratic Gap in the 2020 Democratic Congressional Primary

The Town of Greenburgh is solid blue.  After all, the town voted for Biden/Harris over Trump/Pence by 38,263 (76%) to 12,058 (24%).     [Interesting to note that while Biden improved over Clinton's 33,415 with a very modest percentage increase over 75% in 2016 in Greenburgh, Trump also increased his townwide vote total from 11,066 four years ago.].     The recent Democratic primary, however, reveals voting differences within the Democratic Party between the Rivertowns (the incorporated villages of Tarrytown, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry and Hastings-on-Hudson) and the rest of the unincorporated Greenburgh and the landlocked villages of Ardsley and Elmsford. 

Since the 2012 redistricting,  Greenburgh has been divided into two Congressional districts: CD16 which include the villages of Hastings-on-Hudson and Ardsley, as well as the portions of the Ardsley school district within unincorporated Greenburgh south of that village, as well as the Edgemont school district.  The rest of the town is in CD17.   

In CD16, longtime Representative Elliot Engel was challenged by first time office seeker Jamaal Bowman.   In CD17, there was a wide-open contest among several contenders to replace retiring Representative Nita Lowey.

CD16:  Jamaal Bowman was the upset winner with 55% over Engel's 41%.   In Greenburgh (Hastings, Ardsley, Edgemont).  Bowman's margin of 56% (2415 votes) over Engel 42% (1819 votes) was close to the district wide total.  Looking more closely, however, we see that Bowman won the village of Hastings with 68% (1540 votes) compared to Engel getting 30% (687 votes).   The results differed in the rest of CD16 Greenburgh (Ardsley and Edgemont) which Engel won with 54% (1132 votes) compared to 42% (875 votes) for Bowman.  

In CD17, the gap between Rivertown votes and the rest of the town was also large. In CD17, Mondaire Jones pulled away from the crowded field to win the Democratic nomination with 42% over Adam Schleifer and Evelyn Farkas with 16% each and other candidates far behind.   Jones outperformed in Greenburgh which he won with 44% (4,848 votes) and Farkas in came in second in Greenburgh with 18%.  Jones, however, like Bowman in Hastings, enjoyed a large margins in the CD17 Rivertowns (Tarrytown, Irvington and Dobbs Ferry) which he took with a commanding 52% (2588 votes),  with Farkas coming in a distant second at 19% (930 votes).   In the rest of Greenburgh (Elmsford, Fairview, Hartsdale, the Valhalla school district, the northern parts of the Ardsley school district, the Pocantico Hills school district),  Jones underperformed his district-wide numbers with just 39% (2260 votes), but still enough for a comfortable lead, more than doubling Farkas in second with 17%, with Schleifer at 16% and Castleberry-Henandez with 12%.  

SUMMARY, in the June 2020, Democratic primary

CANDIDATE          District         Greenburgh           Rivertowns                     Rest of Greenburgh 

CD16 BOWMAN         55%               56%                68% (Hastings)                     42%

          ENGEL               41%               42%                30% (Hastings)                     54%  

CD17. JONES              42%                44%                52% (Tarry, Irv, DF)             39%

HASTINGS REALLY IS DIFFERENT:  not only did Hastings far surpass any other part of solid Blue Greenburgh in its enthusiasm for the primary's progressive candidate, but the village had an astounding 58% turnout among active registered Democrats in the primary, compared to 43% townwide (or 41.5% if discounting Hastings).   [these %'s would be higher if including blank/void ballots].  

IS THERE AN ANSWER?  How do we explain the Rivertowns v. Rest of Greenburgh voting gap in the 2020 congressional primaries?  We did not see a similar gap in the contested state assembly race between incumbent Tom Abinanti and newcomer Jen Williams, where the Rivertown and Rest of Town totals were consistent.  I don't have an evidence-based answer.  Anyone want to hazard a guess? 




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