GREENBURGH'S PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DROP: IS IT COVID?

The New York State Education Department (NYSED) released enrollment data for the 2020-21 school year.  Here are the numbers for Greenburgh's ten school districts (including Pocantico Hills, Valhalla and Tarrytown, which all lie partially or even mostly outside of Greenburgh).   To compare enrollments more accurately, these are K-12 totals only (GC, Elmsford and Tarrytown all add PreK to their reported  enrollment totals - the other 7 Greenburgh districts do not) as I've subtracted out PreK.  

source: http://www.p12.nysed.gov/irs/statistics/enroll-n-staff/home.html

The enrollment numbers are reported by the school districts late in the calendar year and, for  2019-2020, were counted prior to the impact of COVID closures.  The current year's numbers show nearly across the board decreases, totaling a 1.8% decrease in K-12 public school enrollment townwide since the previous year.   The reasons for the decline likely vary.   The north end school districts (Tarrytown, Elmsford, Valhalla, and especially GC) have experienced multi-year declines, several for four consecutive years or more.  [The most dramatic decrease is in Greenburgh Central which has seen enrollment fall 12% since 2016-17.].    Decreases did  accelerate in Tarrytown and Elmsford since last year.   

The surprises come in the "prestige" school districts:  (1) popular Ardsley, which has seen large enrollment increases in recent years, stalled with a small decline;  (2) wealthy Edgemont and Irvington school districts also saw small drops after several years of steady increases, and (3) most dramatically, Hastings-on-Hudson experienced a shocking 4% enrollment decrease since last year, largest in the town.  

Without internal data from the school districts, we can only speculate for the reason that public school enrollment has turned downward.  In the north-end of the town, this is probably the continuation of existing trends with possibly some small COVID related impact.  But for the elite districts that have seen years of steady increase until now?  We know from the New York Times' reporting that that Hastings is a center of the learning pod movement that has emerged in response to COVID school closures.   Are some well-to-do parents pulling their kids out of the public school systems entirely this year?   We should gain some more insight when the NYSED releases private school and home school data later this winter. 

The Rivertown v. Town Democratic Gap in the 2020 Democratic Congressional Primary

The Town of Greenburgh is solid blue.  After all, the town voted for Biden/Harris over Trump/Pence by 38,263 (76%) to 12,058 (24%).     [Interesting to note that while Biden improved over Clinton's 33,415 with a very modest percentage increase over 75% in 2016 in Greenburgh, Trump also increased his townwide vote total from 11,066 four years ago.].     The recent Democratic primary, however, reveals voting differences within the Democratic Party between the Rivertowns (the incorporated villages of Tarrytown, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry and Hastings-on-Hudson) and the rest of the unincorporated Greenburgh and the landlocked villages of Ardsley and Elmsford. 

Since the 2012 redistricting,  Greenburgh has been divided into two Congressional districts: CD16 which include the villages of Hastings-on-Hudson and Ardsley, as well as the portions of the Ardsley school district within unincorporated Greenburgh south of that village, as well as the Edgemont school district.  The rest of the town is in CD17.   

In CD16, longtime Representative Elliot Engel was challenged by first time office seeker Jamaal Bowman.   In CD17, there was a wide-open contest among several contenders to replace retiring Representative Nita Lowey.

CD16:  Jamaal Bowman was the upset winner with 55% over Engel's 41%.   In Greenburgh (Hastings, Ardsley, Edgemont).  Bowman's margin of 56% (2415 votes) over Engel 42% (1819 votes) was close to the district wide total.  Looking more closely, however, we see that Bowman won the village of Hastings with 68% (1540 votes) compared to Engel getting 30% (687 votes).   The results differed in the rest of CD16 Greenburgh (Ardsley and Edgemont) which Engel won with 54% (1132 votes) compared to 42% (875 votes) for Bowman.  

In CD17, the gap between Rivertown votes and the rest of the town was also large. In CD17, Mondaire Jones pulled away from the crowded field to win the Democratic nomination with 42% over Adam Schleifer and Evelyn Farkas with 16% each and other candidates far behind.   Jones outperformed in Greenburgh which he won with 44% (4,848 votes) and Farkas in came in second in Greenburgh with 18%.  Jones, however, like Bowman in Hastings, enjoyed a large margins in the CD17 Rivertowns (Tarrytown, Irvington and Dobbs Ferry) which he took with a commanding 52% (2588 votes),  with Farkas coming in a distant second at 19% (930 votes).   In the rest of Greenburgh (Elmsford, Fairview, Hartsdale, the Valhalla school district, the northern parts of the Ardsley school district, the Pocantico Hills school district),  Jones underperformed his district-wide numbers with just 39% (2260 votes), but still enough for a comfortable lead, more than doubling Farkas in second with 17%, with Schleifer at 16% and Castleberry-Henandez with 12%.  

SUMMARY, in the June 2020, Democratic primary

CANDIDATE          District         Greenburgh           Rivertowns                     Rest of Greenburgh 

CD16 BOWMAN         55%               56%                68% (Hastings)                     42%

          ENGEL               41%               42%                30% (Hastings)                     54%  

CD17. JONES              42%                44%                52% (Tarry, Irv, DF)             39%

HASTINGS REALLY IS DIFFERENT:  not only did Hastings far surpass any other part of solid Blue Greenburgh in its enthusiasm for the primary's progressive candidate, but the village had an astounding 58% turnout among active registered Democrats in the primary, compared to 43% townwide (or 41.5% if discounting Hastings).   [these %'s would be higher if including blank/void ballots].  

IS THERE AN ANSWER?  How do we explain the Rivertowns v. Rest of Greenburgh voting gap in the 2020 congressional primaries?  We did not see a similar gap in the contested state assembly race between incumbent Tom Abinanti and newcomer Jen Williams, where the Rivertown and Rest of Town totals were consistent.  I don't have an evidence-based answer.  Anyone want to hazard a guess?