Tuesday, May 12, 2020

GREENBURGH COVID19: County numbers are no longer understandable

I've stopped my regular discussion of the new Westchester County numbers and offering projections because the numbers being presented are getting strange and incomprehensible.

This is what the County is sending out today for Greenburgh:

MAY 12, 2020




Compare this to one week ago (5/5):



















MAY 5, 2020

The County informs us that the number in parentheses is the total number of cases that have tested positive ("total cases") and the smaller number are the active cases.
So, in the course of once week, the "total cases" - a number which without further explanation we have assumed to represent the total number of individuals having tested positive since we started receiving County updates at the beginning of April - is now decreasing overall for the County and inconsistently in different communities.

As you can see, on May 5, 2020, the county reported for unincorporated Greenburgh 1,089 cases total:  one week later the county is reporting 1,070?  Similarly, Irvington was at 84 total on 5/5 and now is at 77?  Ardsley and Hastings too see declines.  Yet, we're still seeing increases, admittedly small, in the totals of Elmsford and Tarrytown and a 10% increase in Dobbs Ferry.   Also look at our neighbors:  a significant decrease in Scarsdale and Mount Pleasant but increases in Sleepy Hollow (an unreported story) and White Plains.

How are "totals" decreasing without explanation.  On May 5, 2020, the County reported 31,869 total cases and one week later the County reports 26,484 - a decrease of 17%?  New York State is reporting 31,472 "total tested positive" for Westchester County as of 5/12.  https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-TableView?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

What is going on with the County?  Is the County wrong or is New York State mistaken?   Is the County lopping off positive tests before a certain date?   The County needs to be more transparent on how they come up with these numbers and explain what they mean.

The County now purports to have geographically identified 95% of the "total cases" but now that the consistency (and maybe the reliability) of these "total cases" is questionable, I don't place much stock in projecting additional cases.

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