Greenburgh Politics Notes: the November 2019 General Election; Part I

PART I: 

Did we learn anything new from the November 2019 election?  Not really. Previous assumptions were confirmed and known concerns were highlighted.   As will be explained in Part II (coming soon), the real significance of the 2019 campaign came not in the heralded supervisor’s race but in the unexamined, uncontested races, and the handling of the Edgemont question 

1.  Paul Feiner proves the formula works yet again

How many times do we have to be reminded that Paul Feiner is unbeatable in a Greenburgh town election? 

Going back to 1983, Paul Feiner has triumphed in 18 (!) consecutive two-year election cycles in Greenburgh.  His thirty-six years of primaries and general elections include four terms in the county legislature and now starting his fifteenth term as Supervisor.  Maybe we’re starting to see a trend?   Only once, in the 2005 Democratic primary, did Paul come remotely close to losing, and two years later he came back stronger than ever.  

What is Paul’s secret? Very easy:  constituent service. Paul has made himself the face of the town for every conceivable matter in every possible way.  Almost every household in Greenburgh can claim some positive, personal encounter with Paul Feiner.  Paul’s accessibility and responsiveness impress a lot of people, especially seniors who vote and write checks (Paul raised $20K+ without effort).  One of the interesting phenomena of the past month on social media was the number of non-Democrats, including self-proclaimed Trump devotees, who came out to declare their admiration and support for Feiner.  His appeal is personal and transcends party as evidenced by the refrain on social media that “Paul really cares!”  It also helps that Paul has 100% name recognition, $100,000 in the campaign chest, and sharp political elbows.  

Now, this result should not be confused with widespread popularity: 17.4% of Greenburgh’s voters turned out to fill in the circle for Paul Feiner to give him his highest competitive vote total in 18 years.  But this is how democracy works, and Paul has mastered this game within Greenburgh.  Retaining ten thousand loyal voters is more than enough to ensure re-election in perpetuity.  I added the qualification “within” Greenburgh because the three times that Paul ran for office in districts that expanded beyond Greenburgh's borders, he fell flat on his face.  Wisely, he hasn’t dared stray beyond his carefully cultivated Greenburgh base in almost 20 years. Will he defy this history and try for Congression District 17?   For Paul's electoral record through 2007, see. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=2036

2.  What did we learn from Lucas Cioffi?

I really don’t understand why Lucas Cioffi launched his forlorn hope campaign.  A non-Democrat has zero chance in a Greenburgh general election, especially in the current “blue wave” environment.  A newcomer has no chance without the town Democratic Party support.  Lucas did, however, make Paul look old.  Not physically or mentally old; it wasn’t even the 3 decade age difference. Lucas highlighted that Paul’s patented personal touch approach may effectively pander to voters, especially seniors, but is antiquated and inefficient. As “Call Paul” is the reflexive response to any possible town issue, Lucas exposed that Paul’s email, voice mail and social media replies are the chokepoint through which Paul directs all constituent issues.  The outgoing messaging service is even worse as Paul personally controls the town’s public communications efforts through a confusing patchwork of email (i.e., the famed gblist which contains fewer than  25% of town households), a dozen Facebook pages, Next Door, etc.   Now, this didn’t matter to the 17% of registered voters who came out to support Paul, but the contrast between Lucas’s technocrat, military-like organizational structure with Paul’s ad hoc, chaotic, personal service system was striking.  Lucas pulled back the curtain to show us that the exact approach which endears Paul to thousands of residents and ensures his political success is a terrible way to manage a government for 90,000 people. 

3.  What about the electorate?
For all the complaining about taxes and the expense of living in Westchester, Greenburgh residents who turn out to vote aren’t particularly motivated by these issues.   We saw this in the Democratic primary where the 4122 voters seemed inspired by party loyalty to vote for the endorsed candidates (hello villagers!) or by a personal attachment to embattled long-time town clerk Judith Beville.  Eric Zinger’s message of fiscal responsibility did not resonate among Democratic primary voters who represented less than 7% of the town electorate.   In the general election Lucas did get more than 5000 votes, 32% of the total vote, but that number is similar to other Feiner general election opponents back in the Jurassic era when Paul faced several general election challengers. Lucas’s efficiency and tax control message didn’t expand the electorate as he recognized was necessary to seriously challenge Feiner.  Age also may have been a factor as Greenburgh’s boomers (40% of Greenburgh's 2018 general election voters were 60 or older) stuck with candidates in their age cohort and rejected energetic, thirty-something challengers. 

Coming in Part II:  4.  the State of the Town Democratic Party and 5.  The Election and the Edgemont Question.