EDGE-XIT: DOES IT HAVE A CHANCE; OR "A CASE OF ITCHY-EDGIES" (PART I)

This past week, community activists in the Edgemont School District launched a petition drive as the first step on the path toward incorporating as Greenburgh's 7th village.    David M. Wilson wrote a good article on the topic at the Journal News.

In this Part I, I'll discuss incorporation's chances and my expectation for the coming campaign.

Every decade or so, going back to the 1920s, there seems to be some move to redefine Edgemont as a political unit - not simply a school district - stuck in the uncorporated part of Greenburgh. Decades ago there even was a still-born attempt at joining Scarsdale, which were rejected by Edgemont's larger neighbor.

Will this most recent attempt at incorporation enjoy a different fate?

As noted above, the first step to getting incorporation on a ballot, it getting a petition signed.  The state requirement is 20% of "qualified voters" which I'm assuming means residents 18 and over.  According to the 2014 US Census projection, Edgemont's population was 7,138 with 5,024 age 18 or over.  (I'm not sure if non-citizens are considered for purposes of the petition: Edgemont has about 530 non-citizens, although the Census website doesn't break them down into over/under 18).   In any event, the petitioners will need at least 1000 signatures.   Since contesting the validity of signatures on political measures is a competitive sport in Greenburgh, the incorporation organizes should certainly plan for many more above the minimum.  Maybe 1,500 to be safe?

How many Edgies can be relied on to support incorporation?  I don't know if anyone has tried polling, but we do have a few hints.  The closed Facebook group "Edgemont Residents for Incorporation" has 724 members.  This of course doesn't mean these are all Edgemont voters, but the FB membership number is about the same as the 687 Edgemont residents who voted for Bob Bernstein when he ran against Town Supervisor in 2013.  While those votes back in 2013 were not votes for incorporation, Bernstein's support in that primary does reflect widespread dissatisfaction with Paul Feiner's administration. I'm going to assume that Bernstein's nearly 700 voters from 2013 as well as the Facebook crowd can reasonably be relied on to support  incorporation now.  

If at least 700 Edgemont voters form an informed and motivated base in support of incorporation, adding another 500 to sign the petition shouldn't require too great of an effort.

If the petition goes to an Edgemont-wide referendum, it appears that a simple majority of votes cast  determines incorporation's fate.  At this phase, advantage swings in favor of the pro-incorporation forces.  One obvious hint comes from the few measures we have of Paul Feiner's popularity in Edgemont: in that 2013 primary where Bernstein received 687 votes in Edgemont, Paul Feiner received only 202 votes.  In fact, in the few contested primaries he has faced, Feiner has never done well in Edgemont:  in 2005 he lost there by 422 to 223 to Bill Greenawalt, and in 2007 Sandra Berger beat Feiner by 362 to 287.

Despite these Edgemont vote numbers in contested primaries, no one should underestimate Paul Feiner's skills as a politician.  You don't govern such a diverse community as Greenburgh for 25 years without political talent.  Edgemont incorporation, however, is starting to look like the most daunting leadership  challenge he has faced since Greenawalt's 2005 primary contest.

How is Paul Feiner responding to the incorporation moves?  My conversation with a Hartsdale community leader who spoke with Feiner confirms the argument that Feiner presents in Wilson's article:  Feiner is arguing that Edgemont will face enormous tax increases by incorporating.  The new village will need to obtain services like police and DPW from other places: Feiner suggests that the Town of Greenburgh won't sell such services cheaply.  Will this hint of vindictiveness throw a glass of cold water over the incorporators or will it backfire, as the pro-incorporation leadership team seeks services from other towns or villages?  Paul suggest that Edgemont will lose access to the Veterans Park pool but there is disagreement over this point and I question how many Edgemont families regularly use that pool and if that is an effective dissuading argument.

The major challenge facing the pro-incorporation movement, on the other hand, is convincingly responding to tax-increase fears.  They have many argument on the They do, however, have a lucky break on their side: the proposed Shelburne Nursing Home debacle came at exactly the right time to support the pro-incorporators point that the Town Board cannot be relied on to make astute and informed decisions on important zoning matters. The recently filed lawsuits will bring back unpleasant memories of the Town Board's disastrous management of the Fortress Bible zoning situation.

The battle over Edgemont incorporation has the potential to turn quite nasty:  the pro-incorporators forces may be best served by making the underlying issue into a referendum over Paul Feiner's past performance and future competency to direct the taxation and zoning of Edgemont.  This Feiner-focus was effective in leading Bernstein to an easy victory within Edgemont in 2013 and may prove effective again in motivating a solid cadre of Edgemont anti-Feiner voters.  Although it does not appear to come directly from Paul Feiner, I've seen hints that the anti-incorporation forces will rely on racial fear-mongering by arguing that (i) incorporation and desire to separate from heavily minority unincorporated Greenburgh is partly motivated by racism and (ii) potential incorporation voters could be deterred by insinuating that a new Edgemont village will be compelled to build low-income housing.

What should Paul do? Ironically, it may be in the master tactician's best interest to appear to sit this one out.  Because Feiner is certainly a lightening rod for a good percentage of Edgemont residents who may oppose any position he takes,  the Town Board might be best served by finding surrogate spokesmen to take the lead in combating the pro-incorporation forces.  One such surrogate has already appeared in Hugh Schwartz, an Edgemont resident and zoning board member, who wrote a recent piece in the Scarsdale Inquirer opposing incorporation and is now establishing a Facebook presence skeptical of the ECC's pro-incorporation efforts.  I believe that the anti-incorporation forces will be best served by finding a few more spokesman from within Edgemont to speak at community gatherings, rather than relying on Paul Feiner whose presence risks making the referendum into a replay of the 2013 primary.

Again, Paul Feiner's history of poor performance in contested primaries in Edgemont, is not a reliable indicator of the fate of incorporation.  It does suggest, however, that if the pro-incorporators frame the incorporation vote as a referendum over Paul Feiner's governance in Greenburgh, it will be quite a challenge for the anti-incorporators  to summon a enough votes to surpass the 700 or so Bernstein loyalists.  This ability to turn out motivated loyalists on each side will be crucial since the referendum is likely to be a stand-alone vote.

I do think that the anti-incorporation forces have one potentially powerful gambit to play.  Rather than fighting on the beaches and in the hedgerows, Feiner will be best served by preventing the  petition from advancing to the referendum stage.  I expect the anti-incorp forces to pull out all stops in challenging the petition's validity.  Feiner's team has shown skill with such tactics in the past (anyone remember Pat Weems?) and I would expect nothing less from them as zero hour approaches.

In Part II, I'll examine the potential impact of Edgemont incorporation on the remainder of unincorporated Greenburgh, particularly Hartsdale.