Primary Analysis-palooza Part I: voters who know MJ, vote for MJ

With the exception of about 200 uncounted absentee ballots, the County Board of Elections has collected the 92 Assembly District primary voting numbers.

First the total and breakdown by town/city, with turnout.

These numbers vary slightly from the expected script. Yes, Shimsky was likely to win Greenburgh, but her hitting 60% in the town that Tom Abinanti has represented, in one way or another, for 33 years, and with such high turnout, exceeded the most optimistic forecast.   Abinanti did well in Mount Pleasant, but to win this primary, he really needed to push that margin toward 70% and get a bigger voter turnout.   With 374 votes, Yonkers was a non-factor other saving Tom perhaps 250 to 300 votes through the gerrymandered trade of Edgemont for these remnants of Yonkers.  In the end, Shimsky's victory margin was sufficiently large to render irrelevant the widely suspected Abinanti maneuver to defenestrate his Edgemont antagonists from 92AD  and exchange them for presumably more favorable Yonkers voters in anticipation of this contested primary.  Apparently even the gerrymander gods have a limit to their cynicism.    

We can break down the 92nd AD results in several ways.  Let's start with Mount Pleasant:

While Abinanti dominated the Town of Mt. Pleasant, there was very low turnout outside of the villages and he narrowly lost Sleepy Hollow.  This Mt. Pleasant success, however, came nowhere close to offsetting Shimsky's Greenburgh advantage. 

Next Greenburgh:

The first surprise is that Abinanti actually won Unincorporated Greenburgh (TOV) and by a large margin, larger than Shimsky's winning % for the entire assembly district.  Other than a tie in West Hartsdale, he won each of the six "areas" that the Greenburgh Democratic Party defines for TOV Greenburgh.  These "areas," while somewhat arbitrary and inconsistent, still give a sense of the breadth Abinanti's success in Greenburgh TOV, especially north of Dobbs Ferry Road. Abinanti's problem, however, again like in Mount Pleasant, was weak turnout in his areas of voting strength.

Conversely, look at Shimsky's villages vote count, and especially those turnout rates (25%) compared to TOV (20%) and Mount Pleasant (19%).  I highlighted Hastings' turnout for obvious reasons. With turnout rates 40% higher than any other village or area in 92AD, Hastings packs a punch double than might be expected from its relatively small population.  And these villages (except tiny Elmsford) went decisively for Shimsky.  With Abinanti winning Mount Pleasant and TOV Greenburgh comfortably, Shimsky's huge margins in five Greenburgh villages decided the outcome.  

There are other ways to contextualize the vote in Greenburgh.  I think the division of Greenburgh into (i) Rivertowns (Hastings, Dobbs, Irvington and Tarrytown), (ii) North Greenburgh (effectively north of Dobbs Ferry Road, with the village of Elmsford, and (iii) South Greenburgh (Hartsdale, Ardsley school district in TOV, and formerly Edgemont) is useful, and reflects generalizations of "communities" in Greenburgh.

Here we see even more starkly Shimsky's triumph in the four Rivertowns which, collectively, elected her and thwarted Abinanti.  If the Martians had landed and zapped the four Rivertowns and their votes on the eve of the election, Abinanti would have won. We also see, again, that Abinanti was very strong in North Greenburgh (Fairview, Fulton Park, Orchard Hill, Elmsford and its school district TOV neighborhoods, Valhalla and Pocantico Hills school districts neighborhoods, East Tarrytown and East Irvington) but lost "South Greenburgh" with Hartsdale, Ardsley Village and its school district's large TOV neighborhoods. These are areas that Abinanti dominated against Jen Williams two years ago and where Paul Feiner is voted for like a local hero. This discrepancy, between Abinanti's performance in these TOV areas, between two years ago and today, leads us to one more configuration to understand the primary results.  

Shimsky as incumbent: while Abinanti has held elected office in Greenburgh for 33 years, Shimsky is also an incumbent having represented the County #12 district in the county Board of Legislators (BOL) for the past twelve years.  While Abinanti has represented the entire 92nd assembly district for the same twelve years, Shimsky, his successor in the BOL, has represented the 46% of the 92nd assembly district's registered Democrats who live also in County #12. And do those County #12 Democrats appreciate her. I titled this blog post "voters who know MJ, vote for MJ" for a reason:

And here is perhaps the key to the outcome of the race. While Abinanti enjoyed name recognition throughout the district, he could not compete with the apparently overwhelmingly positive impression of Shimsky among the Democratic electorate who reside in her county legislative district: effectively Irvington, Dobbs Ferry, Hastings and Ardsley villages, and most of Hartsdale and the Ardsley TOV school district. Again, Abinanti won among the larger swath (54%) of 92AD voters who live outside County #12 and among those whose knowledge of Shimsky was low. However, for those familiar with both Shimsky and Abinanti as their elected officials, Shimsky's comparative favorability overwhelmed any positive impressions of Abinanti, and persuaded those County #12 residents to choose Shimsky for their assembly member.  

In Part II, I'll compare Abinanti's performance in 2022 with his success in the 2020 primary and the victory of his ally, Paul Feiner, in Greenburgh's supervisor primary last year.  Also, a look at the demographics of the voters.   

Not so close after all: Shimsky prevails comfortably over incumbent Abinanti

Tom Abinanti was first elected to public office in Nov. 1989.  When he completes this current term in the state assembly, Abinanti will have held elective office representing parts or all of Greenburgh for 33 consecutive years.  There have been two state senate losses (1996 and 2000) mixed in, but those campaigns came on off years and did not interrupt his officeholding streak.  Tonight, Greenburgh rejected Abinanti's latest re-election bid, and may have brought down the curtain on the seventy-five year old politician's decades-long career.

Enough about Abinanti, who will surely enjoy accolades celebrating his years of public service, in the coming months.   Praise tonight belongs entirely to Mary Jane Shimsky whose campaign took down the six-term incumbent in the Democratic Party primary for New York's 92nd Assembly District by a margin that exceeds the predictions of local self-appointed experts (coughs).  

With about 114 of 127 election precincts reporting, the unofficial Democratic Party results have Shimsky with about 5000 (55%) votes and Abinanti about 4100 (45%).   This margin will narrow slightly as absentees ballots  - which favor Abinanti - continue to be counted but not enough absentees are left to move Abinanti forward significantly.

These preliminary numbers show that Shimsky took down Abinanti by racking up an imposing 60% margin in Greenburgh. Abinanti held Mount Pleasant with at 55%, but he really needed huge turnout and a more decisive margin in his current hometown which has only 1/3 the Democratic voters as does Greenburgh.  Turnout was minuscule in the newly added Yonkers precincts and which proved not to be a factor in the outcome. 

We'll deep dive into the election data when it becomes available.  

UPDATE:
Final numbers from the Westchester BOE:

Shimsky  5,533   (55%)

Abinanti  4,558   (45%)  

Be prepared for a long primary night - make sure your lawyers are primed and well-oiled!

Early voters and absentee ballots returned (so far) totals appear below

The initial impression is dire news for the Tom Abinanti.  In his Mount Pleasant redoubt, his highland troops are slow to heed the blast of his war horns.  While comprising 25% of 92AD registered Democrats, Mount Pleasanters are barely 17% of pre-primary voters.  Greenburghers, over-voting their numbers by more than 8%, instead are filling the breach.  A grim tomorrow indeed for Tom is foretold, one may think.  However, not so fast.   A closer look at the gathering in Greenburgh promises hope for Tom and his unsteady northern alliance:

Within Greenburgh, we find the following pre-primary vote breakdown:

Indeed, the balance within Greenburgh surprises as TOV (unincorporated Greenburgh) - areas previously of particular strength for Abinanti - are outperforming Shimsky's Rivertown strongholds.  With particularly strong pre-primary numbers from Hartsdale and the TOV Ardsley school district (44% of the TOV turnout, nearly 23% of the Greenburgh total, with a median age of more than 72 years old) Paul Feiner's loyal host of white haired walkers is shambling to battle and, perhaps, may save Tom from catastrophe.  

Rest well, for a long and uncertain primary night approaches.   

 

Real Estate Super PAC deploys $28,000 to back Abinanti with last minute mailer blitz

Financial disclosures posted this evening show that Voters of NY Inc. is sending out three mailers in the last week of the campaign to bolster Abinanti's campaign.  Each mailer costs $9,406.80 for a total of $28,220.40.   

The first of the three mailers arrived today and is below:

This mailer, which prioritizes promoting Tom as a "safe streets and safer neighborhoods" candidate,  identifies itself as being "paid for and authorized by Voters of New York, Jeff Leb, Treasurer." 

What is Voters of New York (the same as Voters of NY Inc), who is Jeff Leb, and why are they spending $28K to promote Tom Abinanti's re-election campaign? 

According to this Jewish Voice article,  Jeff Leb is a lobbyist whose "firm specializes in zoning, land use issues, budgetary matters, and legislative issues" and "is ranked by City & State as one of the top lobbyists in New York."  As well as treasurer of Voters of New York, Jeff Leb is also treasurer of Common Sense New York. The two groups are successors to PACs with similar names that were also led by Leb and funded by real estate developers to battle progressive candidates in New York City council races in last year's primaries. 

Since May 3, 2022, Voters of NY has raised $679,000 from the following donors

 

Extell Development Co. is owned by developer Gary Barnett.  WLZ Properties is William Lie Zeckendorf's company.  No one can figure out who is behind Ancel Holding Group.  

Voters of NY is sending out mailers on behalf of twelve state assembly incumbents facing primaries next week and is targeting Working Families Party and/or DSA endorsed candidates. Those mailers, like the one above sent on behalf of Abinanti, emphasize a "safety" message. 

So why is Voters of NY getting involved in 92AD and backing Abinanti?  The Jewish Voice article quotes Jeff Leb as saying that “'none of our funders in the [Common Sense] PAC played an active role in the operation or direction of Common Sense and they did not pick the races we engaged in.'”  If this is true, presumably Leb handpicked Abinant's campaign to support.   I messaged Leb through twitter to ask why his PAC is funding Abinanti mailers and received in reply a friendly but bland and uninformative response about the "best candidate" with the "vision to improve Westchester" etc.  It appears simply that Shimsky, as a WFP-endorsed candidate challenging an incumbent, fits, at least superficially, the profile of the type of candidates that Leb and his funders choose to target. 

The 92AD race just doesn't fit Leb's typical profile.  Shimsky is not a DSA radical compared to Abinanti and, except for the "Clean Slate" bill (related to sealing criminal records), which Abinanti adamantly opposes, and Shimsky says she supports, their positions on on public safety issues seem indistinguishable.     

The Vote of New York effort adds to the amount of outside spending on this campaign. Besides, the previously reported out-of-district donations each candidate has received, as well as PACs, partnerships, and corporations located in various places, the candidates have benefitted from spending that does not appear on their financial reports: several Abinanti mailers and even a robocall funded with state assembly money (potentially upwards of $150,000), funds allocated by the Greenburgh Town Democratic Committee for mailers for Shimsky ($20,000), and now the Vote for New York mailers ($28,200) for an estimated total approaching $200,000 of true "outside" spending so far.

Tom Abinanti and Vaccinations: Examining the Legislative Record

As primary day approaches, there is increasing attention in campaign mailers, the local press, and social media to Tom Abinanti’s history in Albany with bills related to vaccines. Opponents of Abinanti have labeled him a dangerous vaccine skeptic. Abinanti’s defenders have pointed to recent votes to contest that description.  To aid readers in evaluating for themselves Abinanti's vaccination-legislation history in Albany,  I have complied a list of vaccination related bills that Abinanti has sponsored or co-sponsored in the state assembly, along with other noteworthy votes.  My commentary is added in italics. All bills listed below can be found through the New York State Assembly website bill search page. Bill descriptions below are the found in the summary for each bill. Bills advanced to committee or floor votes only where noted.

2011-12 Legislative Session

Abinanti co-sponsored: 

A00592    Provides protections to parents who decline to have their children immunized on the basis of religious beliefs; allows a parent to submit an affidavit stating that the parent, parents or guardian hold genuine and sincere religious beliefs.

A00593:  Extends the protections of the medical exemption from mandatory immunizations for students to ensure deference to the professional assessments of physicians and nurse practitioners in the care of their individual patients.

A00654   Authorizes nurse practitioners to certify that an immunization may be detrimental to a child's health.

Noteworthy: 

A02812   Authorizes the immunization against hepatitis B of minors capable of consent who are housed in a local or state correctional facility.  

Passed Assembly floor on 5/9/2011 by 135 for and 2 against.  Abinanti “absent” for vote.  

2013-14 Legislative Session

Abinanti Sponsored:

A06359  Enacts the "philosophical exemption to immunizations act" in order to establish an exemption to mandatory immunizations.  

A09308  Relates to the labeling of vaccines containing genetically modified organisms.

A09310  Bans the use of vaccines containing genetically modified organisms.

A09311: Requires authorized health care professionals, prior to administering a vaccine, to provide patients with information relating to genetically modified organisms, and provide them the option to receive a non-genetically modified organism vaccine.

A08828 : Relates to prohibiting mandatory influenza vaccinations as a condition for employment with exception of those employed by long-term care facilities.

Abinanti co-sponsored:

A02689  Provides protections to parents who decline to have their children immunized on the basis of religious beliefs; allows a parent to submit an affidavit stating that the parent, parents or guardian hold genuine and sincere religious beliefs.

A02690  Extends the protections of the medical exemption from mandatory immunizations for students to ensure deference to the professional assessments of physicians and nurse practitioners in the care of their individual patients

Noteworthy vote:  A07324A/S04881 Authorizes a licensed pharmacist and certified nurse practitioner to administer meningococcal disease immunizing agents.  Passes assembly 135 to 7.  Abinanti is the only Democrat to vote against.  

During the floor debate over A07324A/S04881 in 2013, Abinanti stated that “as the parent of a child with autism who believes that perhaps vaccines had something to do with the autism epidemic that we have today, I want to state that I believe we take vaccines far too lightly. Vaccines serve a purpose in an appropriate place. Right now if we are going to distribute them like candy we are not going to be able to trace and follow what the effects are.” [Transcribed from NYS Assembly video, June 20, 2013] 

Abinanti’s most notorious vaccination bill is A06359 from the 2013-14 session.  This bill sought to provide a “philosophical exemption to immunizations” to allow parents to exempt their children from mandatory vaccinations for any reason, no matter how irrational, without receiving medical advice, and without regard to risk to public health or harm to the child. Abinanti introduced this bill in March 2013 and again in January 2014 but both times it failed (like all his other sponsored vaccination bills) to advance to a health committee vote. Several of these bills would return in the subsequent legislative session. 

2015-16 Legislative Session 

Abinanti Sponsored:

A00224  Relates to prohibiting mandatory influenza vaccinations as a condition for employment with exception of those employed by long-term care facilities.

A01536 Requires authorized health care professionals, prior to administering a vaccine, to provide patients with information relating to genetically modified organisms, and provide them the option to receive a non-genetically modified organism vaccine.

A02447 Relates to the labeling of vaccines containing genetically modified organisms.

A00943 Enacts the "philosophical exemption to immunizations act" in order to establish an exemption to mandatory immunizations.

A01706 Bans the use of vaccines containing genetically modified organisms.

None of these Abinanti sponsored bills advanced to committee votes and only S00943 received a Senate "same as" bill. 

Noteworthy votes:
A00123B/S04739 Relates to the administration of certain immunizations; requires immunizing agents be administered to adults by pharmacists; authorizes a licensed pharmacist and certified nurse practitioner to administer certain immunizing agents and meningococcal disease immunizing agents; makes provisions permanent. Passes Assembly 142 to 1. Abinanti in favor. [Reversing his position on a similar bill the prior session, Abinanti from this point forward would consistently vote in favor of bills authorizing pharmacists and other health care workers to administer vaccines].   

A00791C/S04324A Relates to meningococcal immunizations; requires certain parents ensure the immunization of their chidren against meningococcal disease. Passes Assembly 111 to 29, Abinanti votes against.  

Not deterred by two failures to advance his “philosophical exemption” bill in the 2013-14 session, Abinanti reintroduced his “philosophical exemption” bill for a third time in January 2015 as A00943 when, again, it failed to get to a committee vote (Senator Martin Dilan sponsored each "same as" bill in the senate).  This third attempt by Abinanti at eviscerating state public health immunization policy drew negative coverage in national media. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/nyregion/refuse-to-vaccinate-little-religious-ground-to-stand-on.html; https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2015/02/new-york-lawmakers-push-additional-vaccine-exemptions-019473

Abinanti was quoted extensively in Politico in Feb. 2015 explaining his vaccination bill votes: “I believe that it is the right of parents to determine who invades the body of their children and the logic that says the state can determine that a foreign substance can invade a child means that anything can invade the child no matter how dangerous,” Abinanti said.  He added “I believe that the family, with the doctor, should make the individual determination whether a particular vaccine is appropriate for that child,” he said. “There are many of us who resent our kids being collateral damage. The possible adverse effects, whatever they may be, and it may be a very small minority—but [the state is] discarding a group of people, which is now a growing group of people.” Abinanti told Politico that “There are a large number of kids for whom vaccines are not appropriate... But nobody is looking to see how large the number of people is.” “We’re not suggesting parents shouldn’t vaccinate,” he added. “We’re saying doctors should be educated in this to make the determination as to which kids should be vaccinated.”    

Following this notoriety, Senator Dilan withdrew his sponsorship of the Senate's philosophical exemption bill, leaving Abinanti to face ridicule alone. Quickly, Abinanti pivoted to claiming he hadn’t really intended for the bill to pass, but instead merely wanted to provoke debate on the issue (Rivertowns Enterprise Feb. 20, 2015: “Lawmaker shifts plan in debate over vaccines”).   

Also in January 2015, Abinanti introduced another pernicious bill targeting vaccinations under the cover of anti-GMO activism.  Echoing Abinanti bills that foundered in the previous session, A01706 relied on scientifically dubious reasoning to seek a ban on vaccines containing GMOs. According to one commentator, this bill would have had the effect of setting back vaccination technology by half a century and would eliminate many vaccines. Again, Abinanti received excoriating criticism in national media.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/fayeflam/2015/02/26/defying-science-and-common-sense-new-york-bill-would-ban-gmos-in-vaccines/#46bc23e66318 http://sfsbm.org/index.php?option=com_easyblog&view=entry&id=523&Itemid=435  Dr. Paul Offit cited Abinanti's GMO bill as an example of the "war on science" in his book Bad Advice, observing that the "illogical" bill "died the embarassing death it deserved."  Washington Post, June 26, 2018; Paul Offit, Bad Advice: Or Why Celebrities, Politicians, and Activists Aren't Your Best Source of Heath Information (2018)

2017-18 Legislative Session

Noteworthy votes:

A01230  Relates to mandatory influenza vaccine for persons attending daycare.  Passed Health Committee 5/16/2017 by 19 to 7. Abinanti votes against.

A02857D Relates to authorizing pharmacy interns to administer immunizations. Passes Assembly unanimously. Abinanti votes in favor.  

2019-20 Legislative Session

Noteworthy votes: 

A02371A    Relates to exemptions from vaccinations due to religious beliefs; and repeals certain provisions relating to exemption from vaccination due to religious beliefs.  Health Committee passes 14 to 12 . Assembly passes 84 to 61. Abinanti votes against both. 

A08676; Provides a religious exemption from vaccination requirements for school attendance  Health Committee passed 17 to 7; Abinanti AYE; bill held for consideration 

A08834;  Exempts private and parochial schools and day care centers from immunization requirements.; Health Comm passed 17 to 7, Abinanti AYE; held for consideration

A08867:  Provides that it shall not be considered professional misconduct for a physician to provide a certification that an immunization may be detrimental to a patient's health if, in his or her professional judgment, such immunization poses a risk to such patient.   Health Comm passed 17 to 7, Abinanti AYE; bill held for consideration

A09609  Requires health care providers and practitioners to provide patients with a list of ingredients contained in vaccines, the manufacturer product insert, the vaccines' potential side effects and where to report vaccine-adverse events forty-eight hours prior to immunization.; Heath Comm passed 17 to 7, Abinanti AYE,  held for consideration

A09709 Allows persons in parental relation to a child to choose to immunize such child and requires a person to submit a form to such child's school when such person wishes not to administer an immunization to such child.  Health Comm passed 17 to 7, Abinanti Aye, held for consideration

A10508A/S08182A. Authorizes licensed pharmacists to administer a vaccine for COVID-19 approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research vaccine product approval process. Passes Assembly 131 to 12, Abinanti in favor. 

After his failed attempts to undermine New York’s vaccination regime through introducing unlimited “philosophical exemptions,” and then under the guise of anti-GMO activism, Abinanti continued to support expanding and facilitating religious exemptions from immunizations.  Now a member of the assembly’s Health committee, Abinanti found allies whom he joined in voting for bills to broaden religious exemptions and even entirely to exempt nonpublic schools (including day cares) from mandating vaccinations for their students. Abinanti supported immunization “informed consent” type bills, similar to anti-abortion laws in other states, designed to intimidate young people. None of these bills advanced beyond the Health committee. The spur for this flurry of anti-vaccination bills was the measles outbreak in New York state in 2019 exposing vaccination resistance in some religious communities that, in turn, drew sharp criticism. Although Abinanti “only” voted for these bills in committee, instead of sponsoring them, he again drew fire for his anti-vaccination activism in national media where he was described as “a long standing skeptic of vaccine science and safety.”  https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2019/04/10/new-yorks-measles-emergency-double-jeopardy-stalls-cuomo-trashes-twitter-423238;   https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2019/05/08/religious-vaccine-exemptions-still-a-live-wire-legislature-reaches-school-bus-camera-deal-senate-to-pass-trump-tax-return-bill-433565

A02371 was a signficant vote ending New York's vaccination examption based on religious beliefs.  Abinanti, a Health committee member, told the committee that "Just because you’re unvaccinated doesn’t mean you’re contagious... We’re targeting something that has nothing to do with the problem we’re trying to solve." Journal News (Lohud), June 13, 2019. After voting against this bill in both the Health committee and on the Assembly floor,  Abinanti stated that “New York should not be a leader in taking away rights of minorities. The public has to understand that in a democracy we protect everybody’s rights and we should not be using excuses to diminish the rights of minorities." Buffalo News, June 13, 2019. 

2021-22 Legislative Session

Abinanti Co-sponsors

A05680: Provides employees with paid time off to obtain a COVID-19 vaccine if such employee or independent contractor is unable to obtain a COVID-19 vaccination outside of their scheduled working hours; prohibits retaliation. No votes but similar to A03354B below. 

A08280C: Authorizes emergency medical technicians to administer certain vaccines pursuant to non-patient specific orders and under the authority of an emergency medical services director after receiving appropriate training; authorizes physicians and certified nurse practitioners to prescribe and order a non-patient specific order to an emergency medical technician to administer certain vaccines; provides for the repeal of such provisions upon the expiration thereof.  Passes Health Comm 20 to 6 and Codes Comm 16 to 5, Abinanti votes in favor of both.  Did not proceed to Assembly floor vote. 

Noteworthy Abinanti votes on bills that passed the Assembly: 

A00279  Requires a health care provider who administers an immunization to a person nineteen years of age or older to report such information to the department of health or to a regional health information organization unless such person objects to such reporting.  Passes Health Committee 14 to 12 and Codes Committee 15 to 7. Abinanti votes against both. 

A03354B Grants time off for public employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. Passes Assembly 136 to 13; Abinanti votes in favor.

A05062 Gives schools improved access to the statewide immunization database; passes Health and Codes committees, and Assembly unanimously –Abinanti votes in favor in all.

A06173  Relates to the posting of certain COVID-19 vaccine disbursement information on the internet website of the department of health; establishes such information shall include, but not be limited to, the total number of vaccine doses disbursed to, address of, and selection method of each approved vaccine provider and state operated point of dispensing site.  Passes Health Comm and Assembly unanimously, Abinanti votes in favor of both. 

A06476A/S04807A Authorizes pharmacists to provide immunizations which are recommended by centers for disease control and prevention to patients eighteen years of older.  Passes Assembly unanimously.  Abinanti votes in favor. 

A07326  Restricts vaccine registry information from discovery and other process; requires the commissioner of health and the New York City commissioner of health and mental hygiene to develop regulations to protect patient vaccine information from disclosure.  Passes Health and Codes committees, and Assembly unanimously –Abinanti votes in favor in all 

A07536B:  Makes the falsification of COVID-19 vaccination records a crime as part of computer tampering in the third degree which is a class E felony. Passes Codes Comm unanimously; and Assembly 104 to 43; Abinanti votes in favor of both. 

A08700 Includes in the crime of computer tampering in the third degree when someone enters information to falsify COVID-19 vaccination records.  Passes 17 to 5 and Assembly 99 to 44.  Abinanti votes in favor of both. 

A08762  Gives schools improved access to the statewide immunization database for the immunization records of certain children. passes Health committee, and Assembly unanimously –Abinanti votes in favor of both.

A09513: Extends provisions relating to leave time for COVID-19 vaccination until December 31, 2023.  Passes Assembly 101 to 43; Abinanti votes in favor. 

Abinanti’s claim this primary campaign that he supports vaccinations relies heavily on his co-sponsoring A08280 and votes in favor of various bills authorizing pharmacists and others to administer vaccinations under certain circumstances .  A08280 advanced in committee but did not come to a floor vote.  Abinanti also supported a number of provisions related to COVID vaccinations as well as bills  regarding state databases that passed unanimously.  

Conclusion:  In the most recent legislative session, Abinanti has supported bills addressing procedural, personnel or privacy issues related to administering vaccines, particularly bills related to COVID vaccinations and he now consistently supports authorizing pharmacists and other health professionals to administer vaccines (reversing his earlier position). These recent votes are pointed to selectively by Abinanti and his supporters to verify his pro-vaccination credentials.* These votes, however, do not erase Tom Abinanti's record of promoting extensive anti-vaccination legislation, dating to his arrival in Albany. Abinanti's anti-vaccination agenda in Albany is a personal pursuit as there is no evidence that his constituents favor such activism. Repeatedly rebuffed in his anti-vaccination initiatives, Abinanti evolved over the years to adopt different “junk science” anti-vaccination theories that shaped his bill proposals. He persists in promoting religious belief exemptions from vaccinations. If Abinanti's dangerous proposals ever became law, New York State's public health policy toward vaccinations would be irrevocably eroded.  

* For Abinanti's argument that he "promotes, supports vaccination" see Yonkers Times, Dec. 23, 2021

Money and the 92nd Assembly District Democratic Primary Campaign Part III

In Part I, I covered the the candidates' financial disclosures through late May.  Part II reported on Abinanti's amendments to his pervious financial report.   Now, we have new "11 day pre-primary" financial disclosures" to review.   Here are the financial totals now including the May 23 through June 13 times period covered by the 11 Day Pre Primary Filing, as well as the to-date raised and spent totals.  

Abinanti's latest haul looks impressive but includes $16,008 from four members of one Greenwich CT household.  In this post-May 23 reporting period, in-district individuals gave Abinanti $3,100, PACs also gave $3,100 (including a NYS Psychiatric PAC contribution backdated to May 1) and the Mt Pleasant Democratic Committee gave $2,500.  The remaining $1,150 came from other out of district individuals. 

Shimsky's contributions post-May 23 include $6,135 from individuals, of whom at least $655 live in district (Shimsky's contributions also include $330 that are unitemized and probably include some in-district donors).   Shimsky received $3000 from PACs (including a $2,500 "24 hour notice" contribution from the NYS Laborers PAC reported on 6/20) and another $1,000 from the Kearney Group, a real estate company.  Two individuals also named Kearney contributed: $5,000 of the $10,135 that Shimsky raised since May 23 came from the Kearney Group and individuals named Kearney (these individuals and the Kearney Group have given Shimsky $7,000 cumulatively over the course of the campaign).

SPENDING

Shimsky's biggest expense by far in the campaign to date has been $35,538 paid to Red Horse Strategies, a DC based political management/consultancy group, for nearly 80% of her spending. The Red Horse total includes $23,137 described as mailings.  Another consultant, Carolyn Stevens of Ossining, has received $2,000 from the campaign.  The remaining campaign expenses look to be typical office and fundraising costs.  

Abinanti's largest expense is $21,000 paid to date to campaign manger Damaris Mone of Mount Vernon.    He has also paid Jeffrey Sayegh of Yonkers $2,000 for unidentified services.  Another campaign expenditure is $4747 paid to  The Robex Agency of Rochester, NY It is not clear to me what Robex does that is related to a political campaign.  Abinanti's most puzzling campaign expense is $7,512 paid over several months to American Express for unidentified expenses. 

  

Tom Abinanti meets The Streisand Effect

There are various definitions of The Streisand Effect - you can google it.  Basically, the idea is that by trying to stop some little-known problem from getting attention, the offended person instead inadvertently gives publicity to something better left alone, and thereby achieves the opposite of their goal.  The name comes from Barbra Streisand's attempts to stop an obscure California state coastal study database from posting pictures of her home online. Her lawsuit brought international interest to a matter previously unknown to the media or public - the exact opposite of the result she sought. 

Now enter Tom Abinanti.

Who knew that Abinanti has an instagram account?   That's impressively youthful for the seventy-five year old politician (did you know that only 2.1% of IG users are 65yo+?).  

Abinanti posted on his IG account on May 4th to mark "Assembly Disabilities Awareness Day." 

On June 15 at 2pm (possibly 2:01pm), a comment from "Liv_Hagen" appeared on Abinanit's IG page responding to Abinanti's May 4th post. 

At 2:47pm that day, Harry Brussel posted on his personal Facebook page a screenshot of Abinanti's May 4th IG post with the Liv Hagen comment:

This screen shot was appended to Brussel's thoughts: "This is abominable. Suriviors are consistently gaslit and condescended to by elected officials. Tom Abinanti’s conduct is inexcusable. It makes me sick to my stomach reading this comment on his post. If you live in the 92nd Assembly District, please do not vote for him - anyone exhibiting this kind of behavior has no place in public office. Edit: as per the request of an individual named for context in the original post, I have redacted their name."

That afternoon (6/15), Harry Brussel shared his Facebook post with his own comment and the screenshot on Westchester County District Leaders Facebook (4:34pm) and the Rivertowns Vote Facebook (5:39pm).

On June 16th, a more complete version, of the "Liv Hagen" IG comment appeared on Medium under the name Liz Bespolka (Liv_Hagen was an IG alias).  

Brussel has stated that he is a friend of Bespolka. He is a college student, is very involved in Democratic Party politics, and has volunteered for campaigns, including volunteering for Mary Jane Shimsky in her current campaign against Abinanti. Brussel denies that his posting Bespolka's IG comment on Facebook was in anyway coordinated with the Shimsky campaign. 

To state that Bespolka's comment on FB and Medium has garnered wide attention would be a gross exaggeration.  

As of Saturday night (6/18), Bespolka's Mediium letter had drawn 8 "claps."  I cannot identify these clappers.   Also as of Saturday night, Brussel's initial post on his personal FB page and the three page shares I can identify (including two by Brussel) have drawn, cumulatively:

1.   "Reactions" (you know, the FB emojis) from 17 individuals

2.    Comments from 16 individuals, among whom 6 are pro-Abinanti (including Abinanti) and 10 who are anti-Abinanti (it's not explicitly clear who among them is "pro-Shimsky"), including Brussel explaining himself against insinuations that he was posting Bespolka's statements on Facebook in coordination with Shimsky's campaign.  

Most of the 33 people engaged with Brussel's post on Facebook are well-known as local Democratic Party activists and/or insiders.  

For context, let's remember that there are 46,974 registered Democrats in the 92nd Assembly District.   Probably more than 10,000 will actually vote in this primary in 10 days. Let's be blunt: as of Saturday afternoon, attention to Bespolka's IG comment and Medium letter had not expanded beyond the insular, hot-house, high-strung world of Mount Pleasant and Greenburgh Democratic Party political obsessives.  

I was not planning to write about Bespolka's accusations because, while I may be sympathetic to what they have endured,  the claim is unverified by others and had not left the walls of the party insiders' bubble.  No one in the local media was touching this matter.  

But then Tom Abinanti gave us his most stirring Barbra Streisand imitation.  

Incredibly, Abinanti decided to make this obscure matter as public as possible.  Late Saturday morning,   Abinanti released a one minute fifteen second video asserting that Bespolka had made a "false allegation" against him.  Ok, fine Tom, defend your reputation, and call Bespolka a liar too.  But instead of stopping there and claiming mission accomplished, Abinanti went far beyond reputation restoration to then insinuate that Shimsky's supporters (and implicitly Shimsky herself) had exploited Bespolka's statements "as political fodder in an underhanded sneaky last minute viral campaign" against him. 

By accusing Shimsky of dirty tricks and claiming the mantle of victimhood for himself, Abinanti explicitly and dramatically politicized Bespolka's statements,  He has almost certainly compelled Shimsky's team - and perhaps Bespolka too - to defend themselves and, thereby, bring yet more attention to... Bespolka's claims.  

This video has been disseminated by Abinanti and his team - far beyond the 33 previously engaged individuals-  via mass emails, and then via several Facebook posts. And Abinanti's messengers have taken his accusations further, making explicit what Abinanti left implicit, by calling out individual Shimsky supporters and deriding the entire episode as a political dirty trick.

And herein readers lies the Streisandian paradox: Abinanti and his loyalists on social media allege that not only did Bespolka make false accusations against Abinanti, but that Shimsky is the offensive party for cynically amplifying Bespolka's statements for selfish political gain.  Yet, by making this argument, repeatedly and loudly, Abinanti and his team are far more effectively amplifying the accusations against Abinanti than anything Shimsky’s team purportedly has done.

92AD: Absentee Ballots and a possible State Assembly rule violation

I.  Absentee Ballot Applications in 92AD

The absentee ballot applications for the June 28th Democratic Primary of the 92nd Assembly District are final now and are as follows, broken down by town/city: 

The absentee ballot application distribution is the same as the total registered Democratic voter percentages among the three town/cities of 92AD.  Among the Mount Pleasant applications, 108 of 311 (35%) originate from the Kendal on Hudson senior living facility. From Greenburgh, 74 come from the Grasslands Roads senior facilities (The Knolls and The Grove).  So good job by whichever campaign (almost certainly Abinanti) worked those facilities to get those applications sent. 

Because the 92AD borders are new, and the last assembly primary in 2020 was unique with extraordinarily high turnout, we don't have a direct comparison from previous years to measure the absentee ballot "turnout"  in this campaign.   We do have a roughly comparable local race, however, with last year's Greenburgh town supervisor primary (taking out Edgemont which is no longer part of 92AD).  Here are the comparisons listed by zip code for Greenburgh for absentee applications in 2021 for Town Supervisor and 2022 for 92AD.   

Overall absentee ballot applications for the upcoming primary (both assembly and governor) are down 21% in Greenburgh (non-Edgemont) from the 2021 Supervisor primary. Some of this drop can be attributed to receding concerns about COVID as in impediment to in-person voting along with growing awareness of early voting.  We can also see variations among the town zip codes reflected above with the biggest drop (-28%) in absentee applications in the White Plains 10603 and 10607 zip codes, which is double the decrease in Hastings-on-Hudson (-14%).  Valhalla (10595) had the smallest decrease at just -5%, but as nearly all the Valhalla applications come from the Grasslands Road senior facilities, that number could be expected to be reasonably consistent.   

Note in the 2021 town Supervisor primary only 445 of 1120 (40%) of Greenburgh absentee applicants actually returned their absentee ballots.

II. The Abinanti Robocal that likely violated State Assembly rules for members.

Some 92AD residents received a robocall from Tom Abinanti at 6:00pm (dinnertime!)  on June. 14th.  The originating number, identified on my landline as "Bedford," came from 914-867-3846. You can hear the call at this link..  Introducing himself three times as "your state Assemblyman Tom Abinanti" over the course of the 50 second call, Abinanti made no reference to his campaign and spoke only about an upcoming meeting in Tarrytown addressing Medicare rights.  

If this robocall was in fact not campaign related, but instead an assembly-office funded constituent communication, the call almost certainly violated Assembly members rules.   First, read the following New York State Assembly Rules of Members Rule V regarding black out rules that apply to assembly-funded communications thirty (30) days prior to a primary.

§ 10. Use of legislative printing, mail and mass communication facilities.

1. The use of legislative printing and mail facilities for newsletters and other forms of mass mailings which bear the name or likeness of a candidate in a local, special, primary or general election shall be prohibited within thirty days of such local, special, or primary election and be prohibited within sixty days of such general election. Members may not utilize other forms of Assembly-funded mass communication media during such thirty day and sixty day periods, respectively.
2. The Assembly shall maintain a file containing a copy of each newsletter provided by Assembly facilities which file shall be available to the public.
3. The provisions of this section shall be applicable to all communications addressed to the geographic area in which the member is running for election.  (emphasis added)

Clearly 10(a) prohibits assembly-funded mailers within 30 days of a primary. While Abinanti has issued numerous assembly office-funded mailers over the previous months, he has not sent any such mailers (that I'm aware of) since the beginning of the black out period on May 28, 2022.  

What about this robocall?  Again, the robocall addressed only a specific issue for the information of constituents: a medicare rights meeting that Abinanti (quite strategically) was co-hosting 10 days before the primary.   At no time is the call identified as a coming from Abinanti's campaign or is it described as paid for by his campaign. Until Abinanti informs us otherwise, there is no reason to assume that the robocall was affiliated with his campaign in any way.

So who funded this robocall?  I don't see any expenses listed in Abinanti's campaign financial disclosures itemized through June 13th that are obviously related to robocalls. If it wasn't the Abinanti campaign fund or outside campaign supporters, then the robocall might have funded through assembly funding available mass communications with constituents.  If this conclusion is wrong, I'll be happy to correct it. 

 

Is an assembly office mass communication taking the form of a robocall subject to the same blackout rule as assembly office mailings? The second sentence of 10(a) taken together with 10(c), while not explicitly citing robocalls, clearly states that all "forms of assembly-funded mass communication media" as well as "all communications addressed to the geographic area in which the member is running for election," are prohibited during the 30 day pre-primary black out period.  To me, the conclusion that assembly-funded robocalls are subject to the same prohibition as assembly-funded mailings, is inescapable.  Without evidence to contrary, that this robocall's funding came from a non-assembly funded source, it is not unreasonable to conclude that Abinanti willfully violated this Assembly Rule. 

Next: the last pre-primary financial disclosure reports 

Abinanti amends campaign financial disclosures

On June 5th, Tom Abinanti's campaign refiled his financial disclosure reports for both Jan. 18 and May 28 to amend several entries, resulting in a $6,185 (6%) reduction in cash available for his campaign as of the end of May 2022.    

For the financials submitted on Jan 18th, Abinanti added a $1000 contribution from Allstate Indemnity Co. (better known as Allstate Insurance)  dated Nov. 30, 2021 and corrected an under-report of $345 in expenses.  

For the financials submitted on May 28, Abinanti made the following changes:

1.  Removed a $2,500 contribution from Peckham Industries originally dated March 4, 2022; 

2.  Removed a $2000 contribution from DANY (disability advocacy group) dated March 18, 2022, which may have been an inadvertent double counting of another $2000 DANY contribution

3. Removed a $1000 contribution the PAC of Hinman Straub PC (an Albany law firm) dated March 25, 2022

5.  Removed a $500 contribution from Michelle Stern of Brooklyn (Executive Director of the NYS Academy of Trial Lawyers) dated March 28, 2022

6.  Removed a $350 contribution from Faith Walker of Albany (Director of Operations of the Police Benevolent Association of New York State) dated March 31, 2022

7.  Removed a $350 contribution from Featherstonehaugh, Wiley and Crane LLP (Albany law firm) dated March 31, 2022  (double counted)

8.  Removed a $200 contribution from William Greenawalt dated Feb. 24, 2022, probably a double counting, with Greenawalt's status changed from "individual" to "sole proprietorship."

9.  Removed a $100 contribution from Kathleen Schuler dated May 5, 2022 (probably a mistaken double counting)

10.  Adding a $100 contribution from Nelson Payamps dated May 12, 2022

11.  Adding a $350 contribution from the New York Bankers PAC dated May 18, 2022

12. Removed a $250 contribution  from the New York State Automatic Vending Association PAC dated Feb. 20, 2022 (possibly a double counting) 

13.  Removed a $350 contribution from the School Administrators Association of New York State dated April 4, 2022. 

In summary, Abinanti amended his campaign finance filings as follows:

i.  January 18, 2022 filing was amended to increase contributions from partnerships, PACs and corporations by $1000, while expenditures for this reporting period also increased by $345.

ii.  May 28, 2022 filing was amended to reduce contributions from individuals from $17,785 to $16,535, and contributions from partnerships, PAC, corporations from $30,750 to $25,150, for a total decrease of $6,850. 

These two amended filings resulted in a net decrease in available funds for Abinanti's campaign of $6,195 overall, leaving Abinanti with $96,484 Cash on Hand at the end of May 2022 (instead of $102,679 as he previously reported). 

Mary Jane Shimsky has not amended either of her campaign filings to date.