GREENBURGH VACCINATIONS: PROGRESS BUT STARTLING GAPS PERSIST - WHAT IS GOING ON WITH ELMSFORD?

GREAT PROGRESS BUT TROUBLING DISPARITIES IN VACCINATION RATES BETWEEN "NORTH" AND "SOUTH" GREENBURGH. [REVISED TO MAY 2, 2021 VACCINATION UPDATE AND HARTSDALE NUMBERS]

The latest Westchester County vaccination data shows progress, but gaps persist between "North Greenburgh" (White Plains zips, Tarrytown, Valhalla zip, Elmsford) and "South Greenburgh" (Hartsdale, Ardsley, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry, Hastings, Scarsdale zip (Edgemont).  As before, this zip data includes a lot of people who live outside Greenburgh in zip codes that cross town lines (10603 & 10607 in WP, 10595 (Valhalla/New Castle), 10591 (Sleepy Hollow), and especially 10583 (Scarsdale village)).  The bolded columns (2 Shots & JJ) are fully vaccinated residents, both (i) total and (ii) 18 years old & over.  Again, I added the % of residents who the census identifies as "white" to examine whether concerns that persons of color are receiving shots disproportionately less than whites has validity locally.  

The variations are troubling to say the least.  How do we explain the North/South gap?  One disturbing data point is that the five zip codes with the lowest % of fully vaccinated residents are the five zip codes lowest in white resident % - although it should be noted that the correlation between race and vaccination rates isn't precise (e.g., Valhalla).

Another troubling data column is the % of 1st shot only recipients.  These numbers are very low and suggest that some zip codes (e.g., Elmsford, Valhalla, WP) will struggle to reach 60% fully vaxed anytime soon for their 18yo+ population .   

LOTS OF CREDIT TO WESTCHESTER COUNTY (Town of Greenburgh?  Eh, not so much) 

To give some context, lets look at some comparative rates, 

Impressively, 43% fully vaccinated would place Westchester County and Greenburgh just behind Maine and in a tie with Connecticut among US states.  However, 53% of residents with at least one shot, would rank Greenburgh 9th among US states.  HOWEVER, as we can see above, Greenburgh is almost exactly in line with Westchester County for vaccination rates.  While our municipal efforts toward getting residents vaccinated have gained national attention, the results do not show any improvement on the County's numbers.  Perhaps the credit for Greenburgh's high rates of vaccinations (compared nationally and statewide) really belongs to George Latimer and Westchester County?   [NOTE: my zip code based Greenburgh data includes neighboring areas that share zip codes -  both low vaccination rate areas like Sleepy Hollow and New Castle and high rate areas like Scarsdale.  Nevertheless, Elmsford 10523 which is entirely within Greenburgh trails all 10 Greenburgh zip codes].  

While Greenburgh (and Westchester) rank very well compared to other states,  Elmsford's vaccination rates tie (with Kansas, Florida and Alaska) for 26th among states for at least one shot, and 34th among states for full vaccinations. 

Data: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html; covid-data-tracker ; https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Looking at the Greenburgh Supervisors Primary - Some Turnout Demographics

 As February 2021, Greenburgh 65,549 registered voters of whom 37,304 are Democrats eligible to vote in the June 2021 primary and determine our town supervisor.   

15,351 of these 37,304 voted (or tried to vote) in the high turnout June 2020 primary.  Let's call these "High Turnout" voters.   

3,939 of currently registered Democrats voted in the 2019 Greenburgh Democratic primary for town council and town clerk.  The 2019 primary is useful, because the only offices contested were local (town council and clerk) voters.  Pretty much only committed Democratic primary regulars and those with a particular interest in local issues turnout for these primaries. These kind of committed voters can be expected to turnout in the 2021 primary. (Actually about 725 (18%) of the 2019 primary voters didn't vote in the 2020 primary, including about 80 who left the voter rolls so there's been some attrition, but let's assume that these voters are representative).  Let's call these voters "Hardcore" voters.   

Comparing High Turnout and Hardcore Greenburgh Democratic voters offers some instructive similarities and contrasts.

1.   Greenburgh Democratic voters are Women - both High Turnout and Hardcore

Greenburgh Democratic primary voters are overwhelmingly female.  High Turnout voters are 60.6% female, just slightly less than Hardcore voters who are 61.2% female.   Women comprise 59% of all registered Democrats townwide, so women vote in slightly higher rates than might expected.

2.   Hardcore Voters are Old(er) and High Turnout Less so

Hardcore voters had a median age of 62 years 5 months at the 2019 primary (and two years older today).    In contrast the median age for Hight Turnout voters in 2020 was 57 years and 10 months,  about 4 1/2 years younger.   The median age of ALL Greenburgh Democrats is 51, quite a bit younger than actual primary voters. 

Expanding the turnout beyond the Hardcore voters means, mostly, that young(er) women are coming out to vote.  

Where do Greenburgh Democratic Primary voters live? 

For election analysis purposes, Greenburgh can conveniently and crudely be divided in to three sections: North, South and Rivertowns.   

The Rivertowns (Tarrytown, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry and Hastings-on-Hudson) are politically and geographically district.  These incorporated villages are set apart by the Saw Mill River Parkway and 87 from the rest of the town.  Incorporated villagers pay very little in taxes to the Town of Greenburgh and the town plays little role in their lives.  Each of the four Rivertowns is at least 60% white ,as can be seen at  https://censusreporter.org  

North Greenburgh, for these purposes, consists of Elmsford village (10523), White Plains addresses in Greenburgh (10603, 10607) and the small portion of Valhalla within town.   The North Greenburgh zip codes are majority non-white. 

South Greenburgh is Ardsley village and most of its school district (10502), Hartsdale (10530) and Edgemont.  South Greenburgh zip codes, like the Rivertowns, are majority white.  

While Rivertowners vote in large numbers for federal and statewide offices, they vote proportionally less in Greenburgh town primaries, as seen below when comparing the % of registered Democrats in Greenburgh, and the voting distribution in the 2020 primary, the 2019 primary (town council/clerk) and 2013 primary (town supervisor). 

  

As suggested above, the 2020 primary, which included congress, district attorney as well as state assembly, drew intense interest in the Rivertowns, particularly Hastings-on-Hudson which had stunning turnout numbers.   When only townwide offices are contested, as in 2019 and 2013, interest in the Rivertowns is much less as shown by comparative turnout.  

Looking at the Greenburgh Supervisor Primary – Part II: Estimating Turnout - REVISED MAY 22

Looking at the Greenburgh Supervisor Primary – Part II: Estimating Turnout

As suggested in Part I, Paul Feiner is facing the strongest primary challenge since 2005 to his perpetual reign as Greenburgh Town Supervisor.   The source for this observation is the results of the June 2020 Democratic Primary where three of the four first-time candidates decisively won Greenburgh in their primaries.   In the fourth race before Greenburgh Democrats last June, incumbent Tom Abinanti defied this trend by prevailing over a previously unknown challenger Jennifer Williams but by a much smaller margin than anyone would have predicted.  

Is Tasha Young poised to repeat the surprise but decisive victories of Mimi Rocah, Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones and upset Feiner?  Or will Paul Feiner replicate the stubborn success of Tom Abinanti and prevail once more?   

At this point, we have to ask whether the June 2020 Democratic Primary was a singular event or does it point toward a new pathway for local Democratic voters?

GREENBURGH DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES 2020-2010 - turnout examples.

As indicated above, 2020 turnout was exceptional for a non-presidential primary.   Reasons for this very high turnout in 2020 include: (1) intense voter engagement in advance of the presidential election between Trump and Biden; (2) high interest in political action in wake of the George Floyd/BLM rallies; (3) changes in NY election law allowing early voting and the COVID year provision of allowing no-excuse absentee balloting, and (4) the COVID-year provision of sending each registered voter an absentee ballot application.      

Most of these 2020 turnout factors will not apply in 2021: instead of a contested presidential year with, many thought, the future of the Republic at stake, and with highly-financed congressional primaries on the ballot, this year the highest contested office above Town Supervisor will be Westchester county clerk.  Nor is the nation now swept by massive protests and rallies and, while always possible, such conditions look less likely without the provocations of the Trump administration.   While early voting is now permanent, and no-excuse absentee balloting is again permitted as the pandemic continues, voters will have to initiate the absentee ballot process by mailing in or submitting applications on-line.  Many voters, especially seniors, who might assume that they will receive the applications in the mail again, may not realize their mistake until it is too late to vote.    

Moreover, unlike “even year” primaries, when state-wide or national offices are contested, 2021 is an “odd year” primary where only county or local offices are typically at stake.   In the four most recent “odd year” primaries in Greenburgh, the highest turnout was the 2013 Supervisor contest (the last time Feiner was opposed in a Democratic Primary) when 5992 voted – far fewer than the 15,130 Greenburgh Dems who voted for Congressional primary -candidates in 2020.    

Yet, simply because of changes to New York’s notoriously restrictive voting rules that prevailed in 2013, turnout in 2021 should be significantly higher than during the previous Town Supervisor’s primary eight years ago.   This year primary voters can take advantage of early voting and no-excuse absentee ballots (although unlike in 2020, Board of Elections are not currently directed to send out absentee ballot applications), neither of which were available in 2013.   

ADDITION [MAY 22, 2021];  WE FINALLY HAVE SOME USABLE TURNOUT NUMBERS WITH THE SCHOOL BUDGET ELECTIONS HELD IN MAY 2021

The crucial question we struggle with is whether the 2020 primary turnout was a unique result of a confluence of circumstances or signaled increased voter engagement.   Now that we have the turnout numbers for the New York school board budget elections, we can offer some perspective.

School budget elections - Westchester County Turnout

2017:  29,376
2018:  26,804
2019:  28,101
2020:  71,452
2021:  31,107 

Source:  http://www.p12.nysed.gov/mgtserv/votingresults/

We get a sense from these school budget turnout numbers that 2020 was in fact an exceptional year and while turnout was high in 2021, it was very close to previous years and did not remotely approach 2020 numbers.  

Conclusion:   Turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary may be the highest for town Supervisor that we've seen in decades but is very unlikely to surpass previous numbers by any dramatic amount as turnout returns to pre-2020 levels (the highest Greenburgh supervisor primary turnout in the 21st century was 6,683 in 2007).  I'm predicting turnout between 6000 and 7,500, and likely not to exceed 7,000 with county clerk and town supervisor as the two highest ballot races for Greenburgh voters.    

   

NEXT:  WHO VOTES IN GREENBURGH’S DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Looking at the Greenburgh Supervisor Primary - Part I

The Greenburgh Supervisor’s Primary - Part I

Feiner is Mr. Greenburgh

Paul Feiner, who was first elected Greenburgh Town Supervisor in November 1991, is seeking a 16^th two-year term.  Feiner’s electoral career in Greenburgh stretches back to his September 1983 Democratic primary upset of Tom Abinanti for a county legislature seat that represented most of Greenburgh.  Feiner has been running for office in Greenburgh for so long that the results of many of his primaries can’t be found on the internet.  You would have to be born before 1965 to have voted in a Greenburgh election where Feiner was not on the ballot or holding office.  

While this record is astounding, Feiner, however, has not always been successful.  The few times his ambition stretched beyond Greenburgh’s borders did not go well:  according to https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=2036, Feiner ran for Congress (twice) and the NY state senate (once).  These forays for higher office, however, came during even- numbered years, allowing Feiner to retain elected positions in Greenburgh.  

If my counting is right, Feiner is in his 23^rd campaign for elected office.  Many of those years Feiner was unopposed, both in Democratic primaries and general elections, but even I can’t figure out how many nights he has stayed up waiting for primary or general election results – a dozen, two dozen nights, more?   He has prevailed by wide margins in his most recent challenges:  winning 68% against Independent Lucas Cioffi from Edgemont in the 2019 general election, taking 64% in the 2013 Democratic primary challenge from Bob Bernstein, and 67% in the 2007 Democratic primary challenge from Suzanne Berger.  It has been sixteen years since Feiner faced a nail-biter when his political life flashed before his eyes as he squeaked by Hartsdale’s Bill Greenawalt in 2005 with barely 52%.    

It is safe to say that Feiner has 100% name recognition among Greenburgh voters.  It’s also very likely that the large majority of voters have had a personal interaction with the perpetually accessible problem solver. 

A challenger and change in the Democratic Party  

Tasha Young is challenging Feiner in the June 2021 Democratic primary.  While Young grew up in Greenburgh and has a background in the New York City council, this is Young's first campaign for elected office.  In light of Feiner’s history, Young’s bid for Greenburgh’s supervisor may appear quixotic or even hopeless.   But Young can find inspiration - and Feiner reasons for concern - in the 2020 Democratic Party primaries.

  

These results show that something different happened in the June 2020 Democratic primaries.   First time candidate Mimi Rocah crushed incumbent Anthony Scarpino Jr. in her run for Westchester District Attorney and did exceptionally well in Greenburgh, outperforming her countywide total of 72%.  In the southern-third of Greenburgh that lies in the 16th Congressional district, political novice Jamaal Bowman upset Elliot Engel who hadn't lost an election in his 43 year political career.  Within Greenburgh, Bowman took 68% of the primary vote in Hastings, while narrowly losing Ardsley and Edgemont.  In the 17th Congressional district, thirty-two year old newcomer Mondaire Jones easily prevailed over a raft of opponents who included state legislators David Buchwald and David Carlucci, foreign affairs veteran and cable-TV pundit Evelyn Farkas, and highly self-financed Regeneron-heir Adam Schleifer.   Only Tom Abinanti, who has been running for office in and around Greenburgh as long as Feiner, defied this trend by pushing back the unexpectedly strong challenge from Irvington's Jen Williams, another first time candidate, to hold onto his state assembly seat.  

On the face of these recent examples, Feiner has to hope that he resembles Tom Abinanti and not Elliot Engel or Tony Scarpino.  Tasha Young, on the other hand, can find inspiration in the recent success of Mimi Rocah, Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones in upsetting incumbents and opponents who entered the 2020 campaign with much greater name recognition.   

While Young can certainly find reassurance in the 2020 Democratic primary results, she should not get overconfident.  The June 2020 primary was singular for many reasons and it is not imaginable that the turnout for the 2021 town supervisor's race will  approach the 14,000+ Greenburgh voters who came out for the 2020 District Attorney and state assembly contests.  

Next: I'll look at turnout trends - and offer some guesses for their implications for this race.  

GREENBURGH (TOWN) ACTIVE CASES START TO TUMBLE

After strangely holding stable since mid-March, Greenburgh townwide active COVID cases are starting to fall this week. As of April 13, the town is down to its lowest total of active cases since December 1, 2020.