Thursday, June 3, 2021

GREENBURGH COVID ACTIVE CASES AND "GREATER GREENBURGH" VACCINATION RATES

 At 43 total active COVID cases (June 1), Greenburgh has returned to low numbers last seen on October 2, 2020.   For context, the lowest number since the pandemic started was 25 active cases on August 25th.  















Vaccination numbers increase.  I'm removing 10595 (Valhalla) from these charts because, looking at registered voters, I discovered that there are only 200 registered voters in Greenburgh in 10595 and the majority live in the various seniors facilities at 55 Grasslands Road. Removing 10595 from "Greater Greenburgh" only very slightly increases the overall vaccination rates.  





The county is now replacing the 18yo+ %s with 12yo+ %s.  However, as we don't have the 2020 census yet, I still would like to see the Census populations that the County is using for these calculations.  For example, are they using 2019 ACS projections (such as found at https://censusreporter.org/, or is the county just applying the 2010 numbers?).   

Maybe Memorial Day weekend is suppressing numbers, but the increases are very mediocre.  Just 1,625 "Greater Greenburgh" (including Scarsdale, Sleepy Hollow and WP portion of 10603 and 10607)  residents got a first shot over the week ending June 1 - the smallest in three weeks.  And this low pace comes after  12-15 year olds were approved.  

We're now seeing the "North Greenburgh" zips, which have the highest minority resident percentages, start to close the gap with the most white/asian zips, as it looks like the high vaccination rate zips are either maxing out on remaining residents wanting to get vaccinated or a lot of people went away for Memorial Day weekend.  In any event, overall, fully vaccinated rates increased  only to 53% from 52% from May 24 to June 1.  I'll wait for the next non-holiday week before trying to quantify the declining pace.  But, as some pundits are starting to ask:  with all the people who actually had COVID (likely many more than the positive cases) and all the vaccinated residents, have we effectively reached herd immunity?

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