The latest round of campaign finance disclosures, for the period from May 18 through June 11, were just released. Let's start with the premise that Paul Feiner doesn't actually "need' your money. As noted before on this blog, he started this campaign with $87,263 safely snug in his campaign account. He then raised $33,962 from November through May 18th, and has raised another $7,277 since, bringing him to a total of $41,239 raised to add to his campaign chest, for an imposing heap of $128,502 available to spend on this Supervisor's primary.
The New York campaign disclosure website reports that as of this past weekend, Paul has $82,382 left in his campaign account, meaning that he has spent $46,120 this campaign season - $15,266 of that spent after May 17th. I won't say he has spent all this on his campaign since Paul reliably pays for his car and cellphone expenses and makes charitable contributions from campaign funds but it can be said that the bulk of the amount he has deployed has been efficiently and effectively spent on actual campaign expenses, not salaries or consultants. Whether he is spending enough (or as some might argue, too much - See: The Paul Pardox, below) is another question that will have to await the primary's results.
The vast sums Paul plays with puts Tasha Young's otherwise impressive fundraising into context. Tasha had raised $38,343 through May 17th and has raised another $3,980 since for a total of $42,323, which is $1084 more than Paul has raised during the same period. It's surprising to me both that Tasha has raised so much and that Paul hasn't raised more. The absence of many usual donor names from the latest reporting period suggests that Paul does not consider the need to raise new money as urgent. For example, it appears that of the $7,277 that Paul raised from donors since May 18th, $4277 came from a fundraiser on June 4th at a private home held by Paul's supporters in the Indian-American community, which makes the remaining $2,800 Paul raised this reporting period appear even more desultory. Nevertheless, unlike Paul's money, a large amount of Tasha's fundraising is coming from outside of Greenburgh, including about half of the funds she raised in the latest reporting period. The large majority of Paul's donors live in Greenburgh. And, as stated before, Paul has more than enough campaign funds to outspend Tasha by 3 to 1, if he so chooses.
Tasha's spending disclosure summaries show she spent $3,725 since May 18th, bringing her to a total of $36,243 spent so far on the campaign. While it may appear that Paul has outspent Tasha by nearly $10K in the campaign to date, I'm reluctant to reach that conclusion because Tasha's confusing account expense reporting makes it appear that she has lots of unpaid campaign bills owed mostly to consultants no longer affiliated with her campaign.
While Tasha's spending reports have cleared up dramatically in the latest reporting period, the large amount of "outstanding" billing owed to "campaign consultants" from the prior reporting period, along with several subsequent reporting amendments, make it difficult to analyze exactly what she has spent her resources on. It does seem safe to say that Tasha's campaign has not spent her funds (or yet to be raised funds) with anything resembling the efficiency of the Feiner campaign. To me the telling evidence comes from visible examples, such as Paul's campaign signs far outnumbering Tasha signs - at least in Hartsdale - and that Paul has managed at least three mass mailings to date, compared to none from the Young campaign. If Tasha has spent more than $36K on this campaign, and possibly owes much more to consultants, she does not appear to have much in tangible results to show for it. at least compared to Paul Feiner. If Tasha Young loses a close primary on June 22, her failure back in April and May to effectively spend her impressive haul of donations will be a leading cause.
The Paul Paradox: Is Paul spending too much? Think about it: Paul is a fairly popular incumbent with 100% name recognition. As discussed in previous posts in this blog, Paul has 3000 to 4000 devoted Democratic primary loyalists who will certainly turn out for him. Tasha will need to expand the primary voter base beyond the usual 6000+ hardcore Democratic primary voters if she is to bring down Paul. If Tasha is failing to expand awareness of her campaign because of her ineffective campaign spending, does Paul's spending risk potential backfire by raising awareness of the primary among the 80%+ of town Democratic voters who don't typically bother voting in town-only primaries, especially those occasional-only younger, primary voters who came out for Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones last year?
We'll find out next week.
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