The Declining Numbers of School Age Children in Greenburgh

One topic not raised in the Supervisor's campaign is the steady decline in the number of children ages 5 through 17 residing in Greenburgh. We can get precise numbers by consulting enrollment data at the New York State Education Dept website . There, we can find not only public school enrollment numbers broken out in various demographic categories, but also information about students residing in Greenburgh’s ten school districts attending non-public schools and those being home schooled.  For the ten school districts that are entirely or partially within the Town of Greenburgh, we find the following:    

Note: three school districts cross boundaries with adjacent communities: Tarrytown, Valhalla, and Pocantico Hills.  The other seven are entirely within Greenburgh. 

Guide to the columns:

1. The most recent available US Census estimates (ACS) for total population for each school district. This total population is 20,000 larger than the town of Greenburgh as it includes the portions of Tarryfown UFSD (i.e. Sleepy Hollow), Pocantico Hills SD, and Valhalla UFSD outside of the Town of Greenburgh.

2.  Percentage of each school district's population that is children ages 5 through 17.  This is a rough measurement of "appeal" of a school district for families with school age children.  The Town of Greenburgh's 15% matches the 10 school districts (with their slightly larger population) derived from the census and NYSED data.  This 15% is slightly below Westchester County and equivalent to New York State.

3 is the total '25-'26 school year public school K-12 enrollment for each district; 

4 is the ‘25-‘26 non-public (private & parochial) total of students residing in that school district, 

5 is the ‘25-‘26 home schooled total.  

6 is the ‘25-‘26 % of non-public/home schooled students in each district - a number that varies widely. 

7 is the ‘25-‘26 total of K-12 aged children residing in each district

8: the 5yr % change from '20-'21 (column 11) to the present year '25-'26 (column 7). 

9: the 9yr % change from '16-'17 (column 13) to the present year '25-'26 (column 7)

The remaining columns are the total K-12 children residing in each district (adding public, non-public, and home schoolers) for the respective years.

NOTES:  Over the last 9 years the school age (K-12) population in these 10 schools districts has dropped 4.4%. Most of that decrease (3.3% has come the  past five years).  Over the  last 9 years, only the Ardsley School District has shown an increase of children ages 5 to 17  residing in the district, but since ‘21-‘22 even ASD (which is twice the size of Ardsley village and includes large areas of unincorporated Greenburgh) has seen a 2.4% school age decline. Over the past 9 years, Edgemont - which leads the town’s districts by a wide margin in overall % of school age residents - has seen a higher than average school age population drop of almost 7%. The outliers are both the smallest school district (Pocantico Hills) and the largest Greenburgh school district (Greenburgh Central), each having fallen in their population of school age children by 18% in the last 9 years. 

Non-Public enrollment:

Greenburgh CSD: Out of a total K-12 population of 1,878, 18.2% of students are enrolled in non-public or home school settings (337 non-public, 4 home). Despite having the largest census population (23,106), GC has a remarkably low density of K-12 children—just 8%.   GC has fewer K-12 children than adjacent Edgemont which has just over one-quarter of GC's total population and has a very high density of school age children.  GC, however, has seen most of its dramatic drop in school age children among those attending non-public schools.  Just five years ago, the number choosing non-public in GC was almost 26%, which was just about the highest such percentage in Westchester County.  Eighty percent of GC’s non-public enrollment has been students attending parochial (mostly Catholic Church affiliated) schools. It can be surmised then that GC’s steep decline in school age children in recent years comes from families who would have chosen parochial education to not move to GC. Elmsford shares these trends. Surprisingly, GC’s public school K-12 enrollment has held steady the past 5 years, joining GC with Tarrytown and Valhalla as the only districts not to have such declines while the town as a whole saw 3.3% drop in school age children.  GC’s historically low public school enrollment has stabilized as its demographics rapidly change. 

In Contrast: to GC and Elmsford, districts like Ardsley UFSD (3.2%), Hastings-on-Hudson UFSD (3.3%), and Edgemont UFSD (3.6%) see the vast majority of their school-age residents attending local public schools.

Big Picture: One might assume that the Town of Greenburgh, long considered a suburb with several highly regarded school systems should have a higher % than average of school age children: in fact, the “name brand” school districts like Edgemont, Ardsley and Irvington do have school age populations over 20%. Still, all the school districts, either, in the 5 year or 9 year time frame have shown declines in the number of children ages 5 through 17.  These trends are ongoing although Greenburgh’s overall population is increasing  (and aging) amid the addition of new housing units.

Source: U.S Census. 

 These declines in the number of children parallel what is going on in New York State generally:https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/missing-kids-ny-public-school-enrollment-falls-again/

Money in the 2026 Greenburgh Supervisor Campaign

There are four weeks to go until the Democratic Primary which will decide who will take office as Greenburgh Town Supervisor for a two-year term beginning January 2027.   Early voting begins on June 13th. The candidates have posted their initial campaign finance disclosures at the The New York State Board of Elections.   

To contextualize, I'm comparing the reported numbers (with a month to go) to the final campaign financial results for Paul Feiner's three previous seriously contested primaries. 

                             

(*McGoey's $48,218 remaining funds include a $10,000 loan he made to his campaign).   

The first data that catches attention is that Feiner has let his campaign account dwindle over the years. He entered each of his previous three major primary campaigns with daunting amounts of cash in his war chest.  This time around, however, he started with just $18,196, almost $60,000 less than when his campaign against Bob Bernstein started in 2021.  In that year, however, Feiner aggressively raised money and was able to spend his largest amount on a campaign ($84,142) and still have almost $50,000 left over.  Feiner will have nothing close to that amount to spend this time around.

McGoey’s fundraising is prodigious, and he will almost certainly surpass Bernstein in raising the most money with which to challenge Feiner.  McGoey will also be the recipient of independent expenditures on his behalf by the Greenburgh Town Democratic Party which endorsed him.  However, examining these impressive numbers  reveals a potential weakness in McGoey’s campaign when we look at donors who actually live in Greenburgh.   Here, Paul has the advantage.  

Inside Greenburgh Contributions in 2026

Contributions of $100 or more:

Feiner has         75 Greenburgh itemized donors who have given $12,261

McGoey has     40 Greenburgh itemized donors who have given $12,250

Also among small contributors (who have given less than $100), Paul has a large margin over McGoey

Contributions of less than $100 (non-itemized –the location of the donor is unknown)

Feiner:              $4,499

McGoey            $1,290

Without evidence, I’m assuming most of these donors live inside Greenburgh.

Feiner also received $251 from a partnership located in Greenburgh. McGoey received $150 from a different Greenburgh partnership.  

Feiner has one big ($1000+) donor from inside Greenburgh (and none outside)

McGoey has two big ($1000+) donors inside Greenburgh (and five outside)

 

Outside Greenburgh Contributions:

McGoey is by and away the preferred Greenburgh supervisor for donors who don’t actually live in Greenburgh

Paul took in $1,050 in itemized donations from non-Greenburgh residents, while McGoey has piled up $17,558 from outside Greenburgh itemized donors, far exceeding his total from Greenburgh donors. McGoey's outside Greenburgh donors include five large ($1000+) donors (two individuals from Yonkers, two from Ossining and one from Pelham). 

 

PACS/Unions/Businesses

McGoey again crushes Feiner when it comes to non-individual donations.

Feiner has a mere $500 donation from a PAC (Soft Drink & Brewery Workers PAC).

McGoey has $21,099 in donations from these categories:

Businesses/LLCs                           $. 2,500   

PACS:                                            $17,300

Unions                                           $     550  

Politicians                                      $.    650

Other                                             $       99     

Unsurprisingly, in light of McGoey’s professional background, the PACs amount includes $13,500 from Fire Fighter related PACs.  

Observations: 

Paul Feiner has been winning elections in Greenburgh since 1983. You would have to be 62 years old to have voted in an election in Greenburgh where Feiner was not on the ballot either for the county legislature or town supervisor. He has won every local race he has ever entered, swatting away periodic challenges from mostly political novices (only losing two congressional bids).  In decades, he has faced  only one true nail-biter—back in 2005, when Bill Greenawalt came within a handful of votes of unseating him.  With this track record, betting against Paul Feiner seems foolish. 

This primary cycle, however, seems different. Feiner has neglected his fundraising and, for the first time in memory, enters a campaign stripped of his customary intimidating financial advantage. Many of his veteran loyalists have moved away or aged out of activity.  Feiner is running an improvized campaign on a shoestring budget—relying almost entirely on his near-absolute name recognition.

Barry McGoey, whether he welcomes the label or not, is the embodiment of the party establishment candidate. He carries the near-unanimous backing of the local Democratic Party, which will deploy its funds on his behalf. McGoey has individual donations from many sources outside of Greenburgh. He has the backing of unions related to the firefighters, the police, corrections officers, teamsters and others, and the PACs affiliated with those unions. All he lacks is town-wide name recognition outside his base as an Ardsley Trustee. 

Name recognition remains McGoey’s most imposing hurdle. Feiner’s failed challengers from the past all share the same flaw: they were favored by Democratic Party leadership but had no town-wide electoral experience. For example, none were running from the position of a town board member so that primary voters in Tarrytown, Mayfair-Knollwood, Edgemont, and Hastings might have seen their name before on ballots.  When Feiner starts each campaign with 100% name recognition, this challenge has to be overcome. My 22 year old daughter who grew up in Hartsdale  told me she had assumed Feiner was some kind of distant relative. 

Over the next few weeks, Greenburgh residents can expect a blizzard of mailings and digital ads aimed at boosting McGoey's name with potential primary voters. In four weeks we will find out whether a well-funded establishment blitz will be enough to end the thirty-five-year supervisor career of Paul Feiner.

 - Dan Weinfeld.  you can contact me with comments at danweinfeld@gmail.com