For more context on Abinanti's loss in last week's primary, we have two recent Democratic primaries for comparison:
1. Abinanti v. Jennifer Williams in June 2020 for 92nd Assembly District.
With nearly double the turnout, the 2020 assembly district race is not helpful to compare absolute vote totals but instead is interesting as a baseline to measure variations in the drop in Abinanti's support two years later. With Abinanti's district wide vote percentage falling 10% from 2020, we can see that this decrease was not evenly distributed. The decrease in Greenburgh (16%, with Edgemont eviscerated) was only slightly offset by a 6% increase in Abinanti's vote margin in the Town of Mount Pleasant.
Greenburgh's incorporated villages (minus Elmsford), as expected, led the way in abandoning Abinanti, -26% overall, with preciptious plunges exceeding 30% in Hastings, Dobbs Ferry and Ardsley. Just as in Mount Pleasant (excepting Sleepy Hollow), Abinanti did however see increases in support across "North Greenburgh" (essentially TOV north of Dobbs Ferry Road with Elmsford). I don't have an explanation to offer. "South Greenburgh" - Hartsdale, Ardsley and the horrifically named "Hartsley," and now shorn of Edgemont- are areas within Shimsky's County legislative district #12 and all showed various levels of lowered voting for Abinanti. ["Hartsley" is the precious name with which the Greenburgh Town Democratic Committee has burdened the extensive Ardsley school distict neighborhoods outside of Ardsley village. Hopefully, it will never gain currency.]
2. Paul Feiner v. Tasha Young in June 2021 for Greenburgh Town Supervisor.
Turnout in the Greenburgh Supervisor race in 2021 was more comparable, but Feiner's 61% victory (65% when taking out Edgemont) makes comparisons ambitious. The only really eye-catching number is the gap between Abinanti and Feiner in Hartsdale and the Ardsley school district TOV, which Feiner won collectively with nearly 80% of the vote last year.
Of course Mt. Pleasant wasn't part of the 2021 campaign; nor were the new Yonkers electoral districts involved in 2020 or 2021
The information is this chart is interesting (to me) although not particularly enlightening. If anyone can come up with "lessons learned" from all this, please comment below.
Not sure if change '21 is providing much value . I think a better proposition is to apply change '20 to Feiner's showing in 2021. That way we may have a gauge on how Feiner may perform if he was primaried next year in the same manner. Feiner had a slight edge against Tasha Young compared with Abinanti vs Jen Williams. But I think that edge is waning when looking at several issues in Hartsdale and Edgemont (especially given that Edgemont still votes here and the 3rd incorp petition is going to make rounds soon). I think all we need is for Suzanne Berger and Steve Bass to throw their support behind someone like the former Ardsley mayor Jay Leon and we are in for a very competitive primary.
ReplyDeleteBut is Jay Leon ready? The last I heard he ceased to be mayor because he had a real job that kept him busy rather than being a career politician. Shimsky will definitely endorse him. She will never endorse Paul after the last minute video he posted supporting Abinanti.
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