Developments in Greenburgh Redistricting: Sorting out the future of the Bowman & Jones districts (and AOC makes an appearance)

The New York State Independent Redistricting Commission held a public hearing in White Plains on November 8th where the Commission heard nearly five hours of comments on the proposed redistricting maps for congressional, state senate and assembly districts for Westchester and Rockland Counties as well as parts of the north Bronx. 

In response to the Commission's proposed Congressional redistricting maps two different approaches were presented by organized teams of advocates at the hearings, leaving us with three competing visions: 

I.  The IRC Letters Plan:  The Independent Redistricting Commission "Letters" Plan presented by the commission's Democratic Party members on Sept. 15th was previously reviewed here for its impact on Greenburgh.  (The Republican "Notes" plan is dead on arrival, and irrelevant to this discussions).   

II. The Berger Plan:   At the 11/8 hearing, Suzanne Berger, Chair of the Westchester County Democratic Party - although she did not identify her position - introduced alternative maps in a powerpoint banally titled "Lower Hudson Valley Apportionment" (authors and endorsors are not identified in the document).  County Legislator Mary Jane Shimsky spoke after Berger in favor of this plan's approach.   These maps were subsequently shared on the Rivertowns Vote Facebook page by Gaby Bordwin, a prominent Democratic Party leader from Hastings and Shimsky's legislative aide.  While not actually labeled as such, these proposals can be assumed to represent the "unofficial but effectively official" recommendation of the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership toward congressional redistricting.  

The public rationale presented for replacing the IRC Letters Plan with the Berger Plan is that the county's infrastructure runs north south and the division of the county among congressional districts (necessitated because the county's population exceeds the 770,000 limit on new Congressional district) should reflect a West (Hudson River) and East (Long Island Sound) orientation.  Nevertheless, the County Democratic Party's process for drafting this proposal and the influences and interests taken into account are opaque, giving rise to the sense that the plan was drafted in a "smoke filled zoom" without input broader than party leadership.  It might be naive not to assume that the Berger Plan reflects the competing and differing level of influence of Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman's offices and supporters over the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership.  

III.  The Bowman Plan:  A differing and conflicting vision was endorsed by a clearly orchestrated series of speakers who argued in favor of preserving NY CD16 in its present form to the applause of many hearing attendees.   Although none of these speakers mentioned Rep. Bowman, it seems rather obvious that these speakers were organized by his office as suggested by this meeting announcement: 

For lack of better names, I'm calling the "keep CD16" approach, the Bowman Plan.  Unfortunately, the Bowman Plan supporters failed to present an actual map at the hearing to demonstrate whether their plan is feasible.  As IRC Chairman, David Imamura pointed out, Westchester County creates a "bottleneck" that impacts redistricting for the entire state.  And as anyone who takes the time to try redistricting the state's 26 congressional districts using various websites has found, it becomes immediately obvious that keeping CD16 "as is" is impossible. 

CD16

CURRENTLY & BOWMAN PLAN (PLAN III):  

 IRC LETTERS PROPOSAL (PLAN I):

BERGER PLAN (PLAN II):

CD16 NOTES:   The IRC Letters Plan simply shifts CD16 north out of most of the Bronx, except portions of the Woodlawn Heights and Wakefield neighborhood adjacent to Mount Vernon.  Otherwise, this proposal creates a single central/south Westchester Congressional district stretching from the river to the sound that gifts Bowman the Democratic vote strongholds of north/central Greenburgh (except north Tarrytown) and White Plains, as well as Harrison.  

The Berger Plan also moves CD16 north but retains Co-op City  and Pelham from the Bronx.   Under this plan, however, much of New Rochelle is handed over to AOC's CD14, which contradicts the Berger Plan's rationale of uniting shore lines in single congressional districts (not to mention the Yonkers shoreline remaining in CD16).   The Berger Plan gives the  Greenburgh portions of current CD16 (Hastings, Edgemont, Ardsley) to CD17 together with Scarsdale and all of White Plains.  However, the Berger Plan extends CD16 north through Rye and Harrison, and divides the town of Mount Pleasant, in a classic gerrymander snakepath to reach north to encompass the east half of north Westchester and much of Putnam County.  

CD17

CURRENT CD17:

IRC LETTER PLAN FOR CD17 (PLAN I:

BERGER PLAN (PLAN III:

CD17 NOTES: The IRC Letters Plan pushes CD17 north as central and north Greenburgh (with the exception of north Tarrytown) are handed to CD16.  Under the Letter Plan, CD 17 would now encompasses most of Putnam county and expand west to parts of Orange County. I think it's safe to assume that Mondaire Jones is not thrilled by the IRC Letters Plan which takes away the Democratic Party vote basin of Greenburgh as well as White Plains, where he lives, in exchange for presumably less progressive areas in Putnam and Orange. 

The Berger Plan, on the other hand, is much more favorable to Mondaire Jones as it would expand his hold over Greenburgh and White Plains while gifting him Scarsdale.  While he would still receive much of Orange County, he would avoid Putnam.  

Impact on Greenburgh:

Current districts divide Greenburgh with the villages of Hastings and Ardsley, along with the Edgemont School district, falling in CD16 with the rest in CD17.  This is the preferred map of Rep. Bowman's supporters. 

The IRC Letters Plan would unite Greenburgh in CD16, with the exception of Tarrytown north of Rte 187 and portions of North Elmsford which would remain in CD17.

The Berger Plan unites Greenburgh in CD17 to the presumed approval of Rep. Mondaire Jones.  

Final thoughts: 

I may be totally wrong (not unusual) but the Berger Plan suggests to me the influence of Mondaire Jones's office and supporters as well as Jones's strength in Westchester in comparison to Jamaal Bowman.  While both representatives are freshmen, progressive Democrats, much of Bowman's influence is dissipated in Westchester as a large part of CD16 is currently in the Bronx. In addition, Jones is a rising fundraising star in comparison to Bowman.   There is no question that CD16 and CD17 will remain Democratic under any plan for the foreseeable future, but the friendliness of the changing districts to progressive, even Squad-aligned, representatives remains open to question and a reconfigured district may spur a moderate-Democratic primary challenge to Bowman.  Democratic Party activist Catherine Lederer-Plaskett has pointed out that under the Berger Plan, 50% of  CD16's population would remain in the Bronx, Yonkers and Mount Vernon, but the scripted protests of Bowman Plan supporters at the 11/8 hearing indicate that the Bowman team wants very much to hold onto his current north Bronx /South Westchester realm.

While I've pointed out above that the Bowman Plan is not reality based because of census changes, the Berger Plan has not presented its underlying data or downloadable maps to show how these proposals configure with the rest of New York's congressional districts and prove that they are actually feasible.

It's intriguing to speculate the extent to which AOC's team was consulted in drafting the Berger Plan.  AOC is given much of Bowman's current north Bronx precincts (including possibly less AOC-friendly Riverdale) but also is handed most of New Rochelle, introducing a third congressional district into Westchester, and suggesting some sort of agreement. 

What happens next:

The IRC will work toward presenting a single plan to submit for approval by the state legislature and governor in January.   With respect to Westchester, the Berger Plan will likely be very influential in shaping the final map (should the IRC agree on a final map) for Westchester congressional districts as it impliedly represents the wishes of the Westchester County Democratic Party leadership.  If no such final IRC plan is presented, or if it is rejected in Albany, then the state legislature will take over the map drawing.