Here are the purportedly final Greenburgh Town Supervisor race results. Don't sue me if they change slightly (this is a "cite at your own risk" blog). After all, the County Clerk count continues.
There's some fun information to unpack here.
- Tasha was (comparatively) competitive on June 22 but Paul had already surged to a nearly insurmountable lead in the pre-primary voting. 34% of primary voters had cast ballots before primary day and Paul won 71% of those voters, taking a 927 vote advantage into primary day. Tasha needed 61% of the 4235 primary day voters to make up for Paul's pre-primary lead. For a newcomer against a long-term incumbent with much deeper financial resources and 100% name recognition, 61% of any significant voter group is a very steep hill to climb. It's not a stretch to contend that Paul had won the primary before primary day.
- The pre-primary voting cited above makes starkly and painfullly obvious the disastrous decision of Tasha's campaign TO SEND THEIR FIRST MAILERS TO VOTERS ONLY A FEW DAYS BEFORE PRIMARY DAY. I received a handwritten postcard from Tasha's campaign on June 14 - after early voting started Many Democrats I know did not get such a postcard. I got my first - and only - Tasha mass mailing on June 18 - the Friday before primary day - AFTER [NEARLY] ONE-THIRD OF PRIMARY VOTERS HAD ALREADY VOTED! In contrast, I had received four large, glossy mailings from Paul spread over several weeks, starting well before early voting with the first mailer apparently timed to coincide with the BOE's sending out a large chunk of the absentee ballots in mid-May.
- Turnout: with 37,308 "active" Democrats enrolled in Greenburgh, turnout was 17%. Paul's convincing triumph diverts from the fact that barely 11% of Greenburgh Democrats voted for him. For broader context with 66,562 voters in Greenburgh - and no November opposition - Paul will take the oath for his 16th term as Supervisor backed by the votes of just 6% of Greenburgh voters. Of course the obverse is true too: for all her effort, Tasha convinced only 7% (rounded up) of Greenburgh Democrats to fill in the circle next to her name on primary ballots.
- A stroll through Greenburgh Supervisor primary history in the 21st Century:
Rather consistent isn't it? These Supervisor primaries just don't expand far beyond the 6,000 "hardcore" Dem primary voters. Paul can get 3000 votes for and 2000 against just by breathing. Tasha can salvage some pride in outperforming Paul's two previous challengers both in total votes and percentage.
Next: Future posts will be sporadic as we're not expecting the final financial disclosures until mid-July and I'm not sure when we'll get the final breakdown for the town's 81 electoral districts.
What is clear from the Pre-Primary results for Feiner is that those Democrats paying attention saw that it was essential that nothing be left to chance in view of the menace whose only qualifications were that she was a Black Woman while Black Lives Matter is still au courant. Early voting represented a convenience factor to those whose polling places were not a few steps from their front door. No future concerns about waking up to Covid upticks, the weather, conflicting plans, whatever. Those who waited until Primary Day were less concerned or less involved and likely less partisan inclined which was reflected in the votes registered on that day. So now, we again have the devil we know back and those less entangled in numerics might take that knowledge on a test run to demonstrate any utility to effect change over the following two years.
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