As February 2021, Greenburgh 65,549 registered voters of whom 37,304 are Democrats eligible to vote in the June 2021 primary and determine our town supervisor.
15,351 of these 37,304 voted (or tried to vote) in the high turnout June 2020 primary. Let's call these "High Turnout" voters.
3,939 of currently registered Democrats voted in the 2019 Greenburgh Democratic primary for town council and town clerk. The 2019 primary is useful, because the only offices contested were local (town council and clerk) voters. Pretty much only committed Democratic primary regulars and those with a particular interest in local issues turnout for these primaries. These kind of committed voters can be expected to turnout in the 2021 primary. (Actually about 725 (18%) of the 2019 primary voters didn't vote in the 2020 primary, including about 80 who left the voter rolls so there's been some attrition, but let's assume that these voters are representative). Let's call these voters "Hardcore" voters.
Comparing High Turnout and Hardcore Greenburgh Democratic voters offers some instructive similarities and contrasts.
1. Greenburgh Democratic voters are Women - both High Turnout and Hardcore
Greenburgh Democratic primary voters are overwhelmingly female. High Turnout voters are 60.6% female, just slightly less than Hardcore voters who are 61.2% female. Women comprise 59% of all registered Democrats townwide, so women vote in slightly higher rates than might expected.
2. Hardcore Voters are Old(er) and High Turnout Less so
Hardcore voters had a median age of 62 years 5 months at the 2019 primary (and two years older today). In contrast the median age for Hight Turnout voters in 2020 was 57 years and 10 months, about 4 1/2 years younger. The median age of ALL Greenburgh Democrats is 51, quite a bit younger than actual primary voters.
Expanding the turnout beyond the Hardcore voters means, mostly, that young(er) women are coming out to vote.
Where do Greenburgh Democratic Primary voters live?
For election analysis purposes, Greenburgh can conveniently and crudely be divided in to three sections: North, South and Rivertowns.
The Rivertowns (Tarrytown, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry and Hastings-on-Hudson) are politically and geographically district. These incorporated villages are set apart by the Saw Mill River Parkway and 87 from the rest of the town. Incorporated villagers pay very little in taxes to the Town of Greenburgh and the town plays little role in their lives. Each of the four Rivertowns is at least 60% white ,as can be seen at https://censusreporter.org
North Greenburgh, for these purposes, consists of Elmsford village (10523), White Plains addresses in Greenburgh (10603, 10607) and the small portion of Valhalla within town. The North Greenburgh zip codes are majority non-white.
South Greenburgh is Ardsley village and most of its school district (10502), Hartsdale (10530) and Edgemont. South Greenburgh zip codes, like the Rivertowns, are majority white.
While Rivertowners vote in large numbers for federal and statewide offices, they vote proportionally less in Greenburgh town primaries, as seen below when comparing the % of registered Democrats in Greenburgh, and the voting distribution in the 2020 primary, the 2019 primary (town council/clerk) and 2013 primary (town supervisor).
As suggested above, the 2020 primary, which included congress, district attorney as well as state assembly, drew intense interest in the Rivertowns, particularly Hastings-on-Hudson which had stunning turnout numbers. When only townwide offices are contested, as in 2019 and 2013, interest in the Rivertowns is much less as shown by comparative turnout.
No comments:
Post a Comment