Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Greenburgh Politics: A Good Day for Tasha Young but a Good Week for Paul Feiner

THE CONVENTION

The Greenburgh Town Democratic Party held its annual convention last Thursday, Feb. 18, to consider candidates to endorse for town offices, most prominently town supervisor, two town board spots and town clerk. Usually, townwide offices are filled in a seamless process with the least possible interference from the Town's 37,000 registered Democrats in their June primary and the least possible bother to the Town's 65,000 registered voters in the November election. The last time a Greenburgh town incumbent lost a primary or election was 2007. Since then, we've had two primaries for town clerk (2011 and 2019), one contested primary for the town board (2019) and one contested primary for Supervisor (2013) (we also saw the quixotic run by Lucas Cioffi as an independent in the general election for town supervisor in 2019.) 

As suggested by the dates listed above, after a complacent dozen years, politics erupted in Greenburgh in 2019.  And this explosion of energy extended to a strong though failed challenge to thirty-year local political veteran Tom Abinanti from newcomer Jen Williams who sought to take his state assembly seat.  Greenburgh is divided between congressional districts 16 and 17 which saw political novices Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones succeed to seats held for decades by Elliott Engel (defeated by Bowman) and Nita Lowey (retired) respectively. 

A DIVA PERFORMANCE

For Greenburgh's town board, as recently as early last week it looked like Francis Sheehan (town board since 2006) running for a 5th four-year term and Ellen Hendrickx running for election for the first time after being appointed by the town board to fill the vacancy for the late Kevin Morgan for six months in 2019, would enjoy clear sailing for endorsement, to be followed by unopposed victories at the June primary and inevitable election in November to begin four year terms in January 2022.  A brief drama threatened to disturb the coronation when Bishop Wilbert Preston, longtime appointed head of the Greenburgh Housing Authority, announced his candidacy for town board.  However, after nominations from Clif Abrahms and Pat Weems at the convention, Bishop Preston, with operatic flare, announced his withdrawal from the race, leaving Sheehan and Hendrickx unopposed and exhaling.  With the reduced ballot petition requirement of 300 signatures, it remains plausible that Preston (or anyone else) could exert the effort to get placed on the June primary ballot.  We'll see.

NO ENDORSEMENT FOR SUPERVISOR ALLOWS BOTH CANDIDATES TO CLAIM VICTORY

The main event however, came with the nominations of Tasha Young as challenger to Paul Feiner, who seeks a fifteenth two-year term as Greenburgh Town Supervisor on his road to breaking New York records for elected longevity (although Lake George's mayor has a comfortable lead).  An impressive turnout of 134 (83%) of the town's Democratic Party 161 district leaders  (DLs) appeared and cast votes or abstained.   In contrast, just 89 district leaders voted at the town party's 2019 convention when Eric Zinger challenged incumbents Ken Jones and Kevin Morgan for the town board and Maria Portilla took on Judith Beville for Town Clerk.  

Fifty-seven delegates voted for Paul Feiner, 55 voted for Tasha Young and 22 abstained.  Greenburgh's 81 election districts, however, are weighted for convention voting purposes according to a formula based on turnout in a prior election.  To attain the party's endorsement, the candidate must receive at least 50% of the weighted vote present at the convention (i.e, votes and abstentions together).  In the more consequential weighted vote, a last minute voter pulled Tasha narrowly ahead of Paul by 9196.5 to 9082.5 with 3877.5 abstaining.  As neither candidate reached the 50% threshold, neither received the party's endorsement.  

First time candidate Tasha Young justifiably championed the results of this poll which placed her first, though short of the endorsement. This plurality victory validates her candidacy as "serious" in the eyes of the Democratic Party leaders. Importantly, too, venerated County Councilmember (and former Greenburgh Town Clerk) Alfreda Williams endorsed Tasha by seconding her nomination. Yet, falling short of the endorsement was a lost opportunity. The endorsement would have provided some much needed financial help from the town party (including possibly legal representation should her ballot petitions or candidacy be challenged in court), the potential of collaborating with other endorsed candidates and help obtaining the necessary ballot petition signatures.  

Paul Feiner emerged from the convention satisfied too.  After all, in none of the three Democratic primary challenges he has faced in living memory (2005, 2007, and 2013), did Paul receive the party endorsement. As Paul pointed out, this was his best performance in a contested convention.  The reality is that the status quo - no party endorsement - favors Paul who enters the race with the distinct advantages of incumbency, a vibrant social media presence, about $90,000 in his campaign coffers, a pre-existing donor network, and 100% name recognition.  As Tasha had everything to gain and Paul nothing to lose from the convention, the 22 abstaining DLs effectively voted for Paul.  

VILLAGE DLs INTERCEDE YET AGAIN TO OVERTURN TOV DLs' CHOICE

Breaking down the convention votes between Democratic Party district leaders (DLs) from Greenburgh's incorporated villages (i.e., Ardsley, Elmsford, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry, Irvington and Hastings) and the unincorporated half of the town  ("TOV" or "town outside villages"), however, reveals once again the distorting, arguably undemocratic, federalism of Greenburgh.  

To put it bluntly, incorporated village residents have little at stake in who serves on Greenburgh's town board and as town supervisor.  The residents of the six incorporated villages within the Town of Greenburgh receive nearly all their municipal services from their villages where these residents elect their own mayors and boards of trustees.  A village home owner pays a property tax rate to the Town of Greenburgh of 0.45 compared to an unincorporated homeowner who pays a tax rate of 6.12 to the Town.  Villagers contribute little to the salaries of town board and supervisor who have virtually no role in governing their lives.  

Despite little incentive to choose town officials, village DLs actively participate in choosing endorsed candidates for town office, and often with decisive effect.   At the 2019 town party convention, Eric Zinger challenged incumbents Ken Jones and Kevin Morgan for the town board and won a majoirty of TOV DL votes, which could have awarded him the party's endorsement and likely a clear path to wining a four-year term on the town board starting in 2020.  Village district leaders at the 2019 convention, however, gave their overwhelming support to Jones and Morgan, denying Zinger the endorsement that TOV DLs voted to give him.  Relegated by village DLs to outsider status, Zinger faced an uphill struggle and eventual defeat in the 2019 primary. 

Similarly, last week, village DLs once again interceded to deny TOV DLs their choice of endorsed candidate for supervisor.  As we can see below, Tasha Young won the majority of weighted TOV votes with 5813 out of 11,436.  TOV DLs - those most directly impacted by the officer of town supervisor - voted for Tasha Young for the endorsement, but were denied their choice by village DLs with little at stake in the decision. As in 2019, village DLs acted to preserve incumbency and frustrate TOV DLs who hoped to take their municipal governance in a new direction. 

While it is admirable that village DLs take such an active interest in an election that so little impacts them, their decisive role takes on a more concerning aspect when remembering that 73% of the Town of Greenburgh's 11,083 Black residents live in unincorporated Greenburgh.  A party convention to endorse candidates, and that follows democratic norms, likely does not implicate Voting Rights violations, particularly in a town that has elected several Black candidates. A system, however, that allows village DLs from areas with relatively few Black residents to veto repeatedly the prefered candidates for town office of DLs who represent the large majority of the Town's Black residents (who, moreover, reside in unincorporated Greenburgh and have a much greater interest in the selection of town officials) warrants reflection.   

WORKING FAMILIES PARTY GIVES FEINER AN IMPORTANT VICTORY 

A few days after the equivocal result at the convention, Feiner received very good news with the (surprise?) endorsement of the Working Families Party.  This endorsement is significant because it means that should Paul lose in the Democratic primary in June, he can still appear on the ballot in the November general election.  While it's possible that Paul could falter among the Democratic Party loyal primary voters who might find Tasha an appealing change, Paul's enormous financial and name recognition advantages could mobilize his legions of admirers who might not be registered Democrats but would vote for him in the fall. In short, the WFP nomination ensures that in no event will Paul go away quietly and that Tasha will need a professional campaign and fundraising operation if she hopes to become Greenburgh's next town supervisor.  


Thursday, February 4, 2021

GREENBURGH COVID CASES: SECOND WAVE CRESTS AS ACTIVE CASES TUMBLE

After a rapid rise in early January, active COVID cases townwide in Greenburgh are now falling as rapidly as they rose after peaking around January 20.  

source; https://wcgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/280339d96db14efd9cc304dba0f3a71d. 



Tuesday, February 2, 2021

The 2020 Presidential Election in Greenburgh

 Biden beat Trump in Greenburgh with 38,263 (76%) votes to 12,058 (24%).  The New York Times now offers us these 2020 presidential election maps broken down by election district:






We can see that Biden won every election district in the Town of Greenburgh.   The darkest blue Biden took with 90% of the vote (e.g., parts of Hastings, Fairview and Elmsford).  The next darker blue appears to be districts Biden won with 75% to 90%.   The lighter blue looks to be Biden with 60% to 75%.   The palest blue is Biden with 50% to 60%.  Within Greenburgh, Trump reached 40% only in parts of North Elmsford and the Worthington neighborhood and the high 30%s in Poet's Corner.    

Monday, January 25, 2021

GREENBURGH'S PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DROP: IS IT COVID?

The New York State Education Department (NYSED) released enrollment data for the 2020-21 school year.  Here are the numbers for Greenburgh's ten school districts (including Pocantico Hills, Valhalla and Tarrytown, which all lie partially or even mostly outside of Greenburgh).   To compare enrollments more accurately, these are K-12 totals only (GC, Elmsford and Tarrytown all add PreK to their reported  enrollment totals - the other 7 Greenburgh districts do not) as I've subtracted out PreK.  

The enrollment numbers are reported by the school districts late in the calendar year and, for  2019-2020, were counted prior to the impact of COVID closures.  The current year's numbers show nearly across the board decreases, totaling a 1.8% decrease in K-12 public school enrollment townwide since the previous year.   The reasons for the decline likely vary.   The north end school districts (Tarrytown, Elmsford, Valhalla, and especially GC) have experienced multi-year declines, several for four consecutive years or more.  [The most dramatic decrease is in Greenburgh Central which has seen enrollment fall 12% since 2016-17.].    Decreases did  accelerate in Tarrytown and Elmsford since last year.   

The surprises come in the "prestige" school districts:  (1) popular Ardsley, which has seen large enrollment increases in recent years, stalled with a small decline;  (2) wealthy Edgemont and Irvington school districts also saw small drops after several years of steady increases, and (3) most dramatically, Hastings-on-Hudson experienced a shocking 4% enrollment decrease since last year, largest in the town.  

Without internal data from the school districts, we can only speculate for the reason that public school enrollment has turned downward.  In the north-end of the town, this is probably the continuation of existing trends with possibly some small COVID related impact.  But for the elite districts that have seen years of steady increase until now?  We know from the New York Times' reporting that that Hastings is a center of the learning pod movement that has emerged in response to COVID school closures.   Are some well-to-do parents pulling their kids out of the public school systems entirely this year?   We should gain some more insight when the NYSED releases private school and home school data later this winter. 



Saturday, January 23, 2021

The Rivertown v. Town Democratic Gap in the 2020 Democratic Congressional Primary

The Town of Greenburgh is solid blue.  After all, the town voted for Biden/Harris over Trump/Pence by 38,263 (76%) to 12,058 (24%).     [Interesting to note that while Biden improved over Clinton's 33,415 with a very modest percentage increase over 75% in 2016 in Greenburgh, Trump also increased his townwide vote total from 11,066 four years ago.].     The recent Democratic primary, however, reveals voting differences within the Democratic Party between the Rivertowns (the incorporated villages of Tarrytown, Irvington, Dobbs Ferry and Hastings-on-Hudson) and the rest of the unincorporated Greenburgh and the landlocked villages of Ardsley and Elmsford. 

Since the 2012 redistricting,  Greenburgh has been divided into two Congressional districts: CD16 which include the villages of Hastings-on-Hudson and Ardsley, as well as the portions of the Ardsley school district within unincorporated Greenburgh south of that village, as well as the Edgemont school district.  The rest of the town is in CD17.   

In CD16, longtime Representative Elliot Engel was challenged by first time office seeker Jamaal Bowman.   In CD17, there was a wide-open contest among several contenders to replace retiring Representative Nita Lowey.

CD16:  Jamaal Bowman was the upset winner with 55% over Engel's 41%.   In Greenburgh (Hastings, Ardsley, Edgemont).  Bowman's margin of 56% (2415 votes) over Engel 42% (1819 votes) was close to the district wide total.  Looking more closely, however, we see that Bowman won the village of Hastings with 68% (1540 votes) compared to Engel getting 30% (687 votes).   The results differed in the rest of CD16 Greenburgh (Ardsley and Edgemont) which Engel won with 54% (1132 votes) compared to 42% (875 votes) for Bowman.  

In CD17, the gap between Rivertown votes and the rest of the town was also large. In CD17, Mondaire Jones pulled away from the crowded field to win the Democratic nomination with 42% over Adam Schleifer and Evelyn Farkas with 16% each and other candidates far behind.   Jones outperformed in Greenburgh which he won with 44% (4,848 votes) and Farkas in came in second in Greenburgh with 18%.  Jones, however, like Bowman in Hastings, enjoyed a large margins in the CD17 Rivertowns (Tarrytown, Irvington and Dobbs Ferry) which he took with a commanding 52% (2588 votes),  with Farkas coming in a distant second at 19% (930 votes).   In the rest of Greenburgh (Elmsford, Fairview, Hartsdale, the Valhalla school district, the northern parts of the Ardsley school district, the Pocantico Hills school district),  Jones underperformed his district-wide numbers with just 39% (2260 votes), but still enough for a comfortable lead, more than doubling Farkas in second with 17%, with Schleifer at 16% and Castleberry-Henandez with 12%.  

SUMMARY, in the June 2020, Democratic primary

CANDIDATE          District         Greenburgh           Rivertowns                     Rest of Greenburgh 

CD16 BOWMAN         55%               56%                68% (Hastings)                     42%

          ENGEL               41%               42%                30% (Hastings)                     54%  

CD17. JONES              42%                44%                52% (Tarry, Irv, DF)             39%

HASTINGS REALLY IS DIFFERENT:  not only did Hastings far surpass any other part of solid Blue Greenburgh in its enthusiasm for the primary's progressive candidate, but the village had an astounding 58% turnout among active registered Democrats in the primary, compared to 43% townwide (or 41.5% if discounting Hastings).   [these %'s would be higher if including blank/void ballots].  

IS THERE AN ANSWER?  How do we explain the Rivertowns v. Rest of Greenburgh voting gap in the 2020 congressional primaries?  We did not see a similar gap in the contested state assembly race between incumbent Tom Abinanti and newcomer Jen Williams, where the Rivertown and Rest of Town totals were consistent.  I don't have an evidence-based answer.  Anyone want to hazard a guess? 




Friday, December 4, 2020

GREENBURGH TOWN ACTIVE COVID CASES: SECOND WAVE

 Town active cases on Dec. 4th hit 490 total, setting a new daily high for active cases for the Town since  the county started distributing such data on May 5.