I. Jamaal Bowman's electoral record:
(1) June 2020: newcomer Bowman handily defeated longtime incumbent Elliot Engel in the very high turnout June 2020 Democratic primary winning 55.4% of the total vote. In 2020, Westchester County comprised 59% of the active registered Democrats in New York's 16th Congressional District (CD16), with the remainder in the Bronx. Bowman won 52% of the Westchester County votes in 2020. In 2020, CD16 included 19 Greenburgh electoral districts (out of then 81) consisting of the villages of Hastings-on-Hudson, Ardsley, and in unincorporated Greenburgh, the Edgemont school district, and portions of the Ardsley school district south of that village between Edgemont and Hastings. Bowman outperformed his CD16 margin in those parts of Greenburgh within CD16 primarily because of the extraordinary result of his receiving 69% in high turn-out Hastings.
(2) August 2022: in a redistricted CD16 where south and central Westchester County now comprised almost 90% of the districts's Democrats, Bowman defeated challengers Catherine Parker and Vedat Gashi in a low-key campaign, with low turnout, by an almost identical margin as in 2020 (54%) and again won Westchester with 52%. Now with Greenburgh almost entirely within CD16 (excluding 4 electoral districts in Tarrytown village), Bowman's Greenburgh margin fell to 52%, matching his county total.
(3) June 2024: Before the June 2024 primary, CD16 lines were redrawn in the Bronx, while Westchester (including Greenburgh) remained almost unchanged, maintaining the same 89% to 11% divide among registered Democrats in the two counties comprising the district. Bowman's vote total of 25,590 in Westchester in June 2024 far exceeded his total of 19,353 in the 2022 primary, but Bowman's percentage of votes in Westchester fell from 52% in 2020 and 2022 to just 36.5% in the 2024 primary. Turnout in the 2024 primary nearly doubled turnout in 2022, but still fell short of the 2020 primary. Once again, like in 2022, Bowman's % in Greenburgh matched his result in Westchester Co.
II. Mapping 2024 Primary Results in Greenburgh by electoral district
Benjamin Rosenblatt has done all the hard work and created a map depicting the primary results. Here's the Greenburgh portion from Rosenblatt's website (green are electoral districts won by Latimer, while purple went for Bowman).
III. Bowman's vote totals in Greenburgh, broken down by electoral district area. I keep the Democratic Party "areas" intact except for breaking out the Highpoint Condo complex separately from Fairview and dividing "Hartsley" in the unincorporated areas within the Ardsley school district south and north of Ardsley village.
With turnout nearly doubling from 7,395 in 2022 to 13,935 in 2024, Bowman's vote total grew in nearly all areas but still fell fall short in those south Greenburgh areas within CD16 2020 from Bowman's success in his freshman campaign. The most dramatic vote change came in Hastings where the total turnout in 2020 and 2024 were very close, but where Bowman lost 35% of his vote numbers over four years.
IV. Bowman's vote % by electoral areas: significantly Bowman's % of votes fell in every area when measured from 2022 to 2024 and also in all four areas within CD16 from 2020 to 2024. The drop in support in the Rivertowns is particularly dramatic:
V. As has been usual for several years, turnout in Hastings is extraordinarily high, led by Hastings ED23, which ranked #7 out of 675 CD16 electoral districts in turnout in the 2024 primary, exceeded only by one ED in Scarsdale, and 5 in north New Rochelle. With CD16 Westchester turnout at 32%, Greenburgh was well in front of its neighbors with 41%. As seen by checking these %'s with the map, Bowman's wins were all in lower turnout areas.
I'm not going to speculate here about the reasons for Bowman's dismal performance in Greenburgh in the 2024 Democratic primary compared to his previous primary results, but the widespread drop in support, even in the two areas he won in 2024, suggests complex reasons rather than the simplistic narrative offered by local and national media and on-line commentators. I do think that the collapse in Bowman's support in progressive, highly engaged Hastings, points toward disenchantment with Bowman's performance as a congressional representative as much or more than any particular policy issue.
